Atlanta United FC — Inter Miami CF: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
26.0%
Home win
Atlanta United FC
X
21.9%
Draw
W2
52.1%
Away win
Inter Miami CF
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1278.1%
Both teams to score
Yes73.0%
Totals 2.5
Over74.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 47.9% |
| 12 | 78.1% | |
| X2 | 74.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 73.0% / 27.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.0% / 3.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.1% / 8.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.8% / 25.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 54.8% / 45.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 35.2% / 64.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 20.0% / 80.0% |
Goal distribution model
Atlanta United FC × Inter Miami CF
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.0%
0:1
3.6%
0:2
5.3%
0:3
4.0%
0:4
2.3%
0:5
1.1%
1
1:0
2.3%
1:1
8.4%
1:2
8.5%
1:3
6.5%
1:4
3.7%
1:5
1.7%
2
2:0
2.6%
2:1
6.0%
2:2
6.9%
2:3
5.3%
2:4
3.0%
2:5
1.4%
3
3:0
1.4%
3:1
3.2%
3:2
3.7%
3:3
2.8%
3:4
1.6%
3:5
0.7%
4
4:0
0.6%
4:1
1.3%
4:2
1.5%
4:3
1.1%
4:4
0.7%
4:5
0.3%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:28.5%
1:18.4%
2:26.9%
1:36.5%
2:16.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home New York City 2:2
- 20.09.2026 away Portland Timbers 1:0
- 13.09.2026 away DC United 0:0
- 10.09.2026 home Orlando City 2:3
- 06.09.2026 away Inter Miami 2:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 28.09.2026 away Columbus Crew 1:2
- 21.09.2026 home San Diego FC 2:2
- 13.09.2026 home Nashville SC 2:2
- 10.09.2026 away Chicago Fire 1:1
- 06.09.2026 home Atlanta Utd 2:2
This season: Atlanta United FC at home vs Inter Miami CF away
| Metric | Atlanta United FC · at home | Inter Miami CF · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 4–2–7 | 8–3–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.46 | 2.07 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.77 | 1.71 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 71% |
| Both teams scored | 77% | 71% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Atlanta United FC wins2
Draws1
Inter Miami CF wins3
Goals per match3.67
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals6/6
- 06.09.2026 Inter Miami CF 2:2 Atlanta United FC
- 12.10.2025 Inter Miami CF 4:0 Atlanta United FC
- 16.03.2025 Atlanta United FC 1:2 Inter Miami CF
- 10.11.2024 Inter Miami CF 2:3 Atlanta United FC
- 02.11.2024 Atlanta United FC 2:1 Inter Miami CF
- 26.10.2024 Inter Miami CF 2:1 Atlanta United FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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