New York Red Bulls — Toronto FC: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
46.3%
Home win
New York Red Bulls
X
23.9%
Draw
W2
29.7%
Away win
Toronto FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1276.1%
Both teams to score
Yes69.8%
Totals 2.5
Over69.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.3% |
| 12 | 76.1% | |
| X2 | 53.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.8% / 30.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.3% / 11.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.3% / 30.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.9% / 52.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.9% / 71.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.2% / 84.8% |
Goal distribution model
New York Red Bulls × Toronto FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.0%
0:1
3.3%
0:2
3.5%
0:3
1.8%
0:4
0.7%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
4.4%
1:1
10.0%
1:2
7.0%
1:3
3.7%
1:4
1.5%
1:5
0.5%
2
2:0
5.6%
2:1
8.8%
2:2
7.0%
2:3
3.7%
2:4
1.5%
2:5
0.5%
3
3:0
3.7%
3:1
5.8%
3:2
4.6%
3:3
2.4%
3:4
1.0%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
1.8%
4:1
2.9%
4:2
2.3%
4:3
1.2%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.7%
5:1
1.2%
5:2
0.9%
5:3
0.5%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:110.0%
2:18.8%
1:27.0%
2:27.0%
3:15.8%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.10.2026 home St. Louis City 0:3
- 19.09.2026 away New York City 1:0
- 13.09.2026 away Columbus Crew 1:0
- 10.09.2026 away Los Angeles FC 0:2
- 06.09.2026 away Seattle Sounders 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away Nashville SC 0:2
- 20.09.2026 away St. Louis City 1:3
- 13.09.2026 away Orlando City 0:3
- 10.09.2026 home Nashville SC 2:1
- 06.09.2026 home Chicago Fire 4:4
This season: New York Red Bulls at home vs Toronto FC away
| Metric | New York Red Bulls · at home | Toronto FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 4–3–6 | 2–3–8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.38 | 0.77 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.77 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 62% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 54% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
New York Red Bulls wins4
Draws2
Toronto FC wins0
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 14.03.2026 Toronto FC 1:1 New York Red Bulls
- 26.06.2025 Toronto FC 1:1 New York Red Bulls
- 22.03.2025 New York Red Bulls 2:1 Toronto FC
- 03.10.2024 Toronto FC 1:4 New York Red Bulls
- 23.06.2024 New York Red Bulls 3:0 Toronto FC
- 08.10.2023 New York Red Bulls 3:0 Toronto FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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