New England Revolution — Chicago Fire: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
38.4%
Home win
New England Revolution
X
24.0%
Draw
W2
37.6%
Away win
Chicago Fire
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1276.0%
Both teams to score
Yes70.3%
Totals 2.5
Over69.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.4% |
| 12 | 76.0% | |
| X2 | 61.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.3% / 29.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.2% / 11.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.3% / 30.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.9% / 52.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.9% / 71.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.2% / 84.8% |
Goal distribution model
New England Revolution × Chicago Fire
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.8%
0:1
4.0%
0:2
4.4%
0:3
2.6%
0:4
1.2%
0:5
0.4%
1
1:0
4.0%
1:1
10.0%
1:2
8.0%
1:3
4.7%
1:4
2.1%
1:5
0.7%
2
2:0
4.5%
2:1
8.0%
2:2
7.1%
2:3
4.2%
2:4
1.9%
2:5
0.7%
3
3:0
2.7%
3:1
4.8%
3:2
4.3%
3:3
2.5%
3:4
1.1%
3:5
0.4%
4
4:0
1.2%
4:1
2.2%
4:2
1.9%
4:3
1.1%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.4%
5:1
0.8%
5:2
0.7%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:110.0%
2:18.0%
1:28.0%
2:27.2%
3:14.8%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away Real Salt Lake 0:3
- 20.09.2026 home Orlando City 4:2
- 13.09.2026 away Chicago Fire 2:1
- 10.09.2026 away New York City 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 07.10.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 3:1
- 27.09.2026 away Charlotte 1:0
- 20.09.2026 away Nashville SC 0:3
- 13.09.2026 home New England Revolution 1:2
- 10.09.2026 home Inter Miami 1:1
This season: New England Revolution at home vs Chicago Fire away
| Metric | New England Revolution · at home | Chicago Fire · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 9–2–2 | 5–5–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.71 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.71 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 71% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 71% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
New England Revolution wins2
Draws3
Chicago Fire wins1
Goals per match3.17
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 13.09.2026 Chicago Fire 1:2 New England Revolution
- 18.10.2025 New England Revolution 2:2 Chicago Fire
- 07.09.2025 Chicago Fire 3:2 New England Revolution
- 05.05.2024 Chicago Fire 0:1 New England Revolution
- 23.03.2024 New England Revolution 1:1 Chicago Fire
- 24.09.2023 Chicago Fire 2:2 New England Revolution
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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