Houston Dynamo — FC Dallas: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
45.1%
Home win
Houston Dynamo
X
26.1%
Draw
W2
28.7%
Away win
FC Dallas
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.9%
Both teams to score
Yes60.6%
Totals 2.5
Over57.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.3% |
| 12 | 73.9% | |
| X2 | 54.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.6% / 39.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.2% / 18.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.6% / 42.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.2% / 64.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.4% / 81.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.4% / 91.6% |
Goal distribution model
Houston Dynamo × FC Dallas
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.1%
0:1
5.4%
0:2
4.3%
0:3
1.9%
0:4
0.6%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
7.3%
1:1
12.2%
1:2
7.2%
1:3
3.2%
1:4
1.0%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
7.1%
2:1
9.3%
2:2
6.1%
2:3
2.7%
2:4
0.9%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
4.0%
3:1
5.2%
3:2
3.4%
3:3
1.5%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.7%
4:1
2.2%
4:2
1.4%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.6%
5:1
0.7%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.2%
2:19.3%
1:07.3%
1:27.2%
2:07.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 0:2
- 20.09.2026 home FC Cincinnati 2:2
- 13.09.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 0:1
- 10.09.2026 home Real Salt Lake 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Charlotte 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home Los Angeles FC 1:0
- 20.09.2026 home Austin FC 0:0
- 13.09.2026 home Portland Timbers 2:1
- 10.09.2026 away Minnesota United 2:1
- 06.09.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 4:3
This season: Houston Dynamo at home vs FC Dallas away
| Metric | Houston Dynamo · at home | FC Dallas · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 8–3–3 | 7–3–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.21 | 1.79 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.86 | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 71% |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 57% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Houston Dynamo wins1
Draws2
FC Dallas wins3
Goals per match2.67
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 22.03.2026 FC Dallas 4:3 Houston Dynamo
- 18.05.2025 FC Dallas 0:2 Houston Dynamo
- 23.02.2025 Houston Dynamo 1:2 FC Dallas
- 19.05.2024 Houston Dynamo 1:1 FC Dallas
- 28.04.2024 FC Dallas 2:0 Houston Dynamo
- 01.10.2023 Houston Dynamo 0:0 FC Dallas
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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