Sporting Kansas City — Portland Timbers: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 56.5% |
| 12 | 76.3% | |
| X2 | 67.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 73.7% / 26.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.8% / 9.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.5% / 26.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 33.6% / 66.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.8% / 81.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.10.2026 away Seattle Sounders 1:2
- 27.09.2026 away Houston Dynamo 2:0
- 20.09.2026 home Philadelphia Union 3:4
- 13.09.2026 home Los Angeles FC 3:1
- 06.09.2026 away FC Dallas 3:4
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 1:3
- 20.09.2026 home Atlanta Utd 0:1
- 13.09.2026 away FC Dallas 1:2
- 10.09.2026 home St. Louis City 2:2
- 06.09.2026 home Minnesota United 5:4
This season: Sporting Kansas City at home vs Portland Timbers away
| Metric | Sporting Kansas City · at home | Portland Timbers · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 3–3–7 | 2–2–9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.38 | 1.31 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 62% |
| Both teams scored | 77% | 69% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 10.05.2026 Portland Timbers 6:0 Sporting Kansas City
- 11.05.2025 Portland Timbers 1:0 Sporting Kansas City
- 13.04.2025 Sporting Kansas City 2:4 Portland Timbers
- 26.05.2024 Portland Timbers 2:1 Sporting Kansas City
- 07.04.2024 Sporting Kansas City 3:3 Portland Timbers
- 28.05.2023 Sporting Kansas City 4:1 Portland Timbers
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers enter this MLS meeting looking evenly matched, with the available assessment giving a high-confidence signal toward a competitive contest. Neither side has a clearly defined advantage in the supplied information, so the matchup appears finely balanced heading into kickoff.
The scoring outlook points toward an open game, with both teams likely to find the net. The projected scorelines include 1:1, 2:1, and 1:2, reinforcing the expectation of a contest where neither Sporting Kansas City nor Portland Timbers is clearly separated from the other. Overall, the analysis favors a high-scoring match and identifies both teams scoring as the main market signal.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.