Minnesota United FC — Houston Dynamo: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.1% |
| 12 | 72.9% | |
| X2 | 55.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.4% / 39.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.3% / 6.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.1% / 18.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.8% / 43.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.4% / 65.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.8% / 82.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.0% / 92.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away Seattle Sounders 1:3
- 20.09.2026 home Los Angeles Galaxy 2:3
- 13.09.2026 away St. Louis City 2:4
- 10.09.2026 home FC Dallas 1:2
- 06.09.2026 away Portland Timbers 4:5
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 0:2
- 20.09.2026 home FC Cincinnati 2:2
- 13.09.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 0:1
- 10.09.2026 home Real Salt Lake 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Charlotte 0:0
This season: Minnesota United FC at home vs Houston Dynamo away
| Metric | Minnesota United FC · at home | Houston Dynamo · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 2–6–5 | 5–2–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.08 | 1.31 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.23 | 1.54 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 38% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 26.06.2025 Minnesota United FC 3:1 Houston Dynamo
- 15.05.2025 Houston Dynamo 2:0 Minnesota United FC
- 14.07.2024 Houston Dynamo 1:1 Minnesota United FC
- 14.04.2024 Minnesota United FC 1:2 Houston Dynamo
- 13.07.2023 Houston Dynamo 0:3 Minnesota United FC
- 18.05.2023 Minnesota United FC 1:0 Houston Dynamo
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Minnesota United FC welcome Houston Dynamo in an MLS fixture where the broader context pulls in two directions. The hosts arrive on a run of five straight defeats, scoring ten and conceding seventeen across that stretch, and their home ledger this season is modest: thirteen matches played, only two wins alongside six draws and five losses. That is not the profile of a dominant home side, yet the historical pattern against this specific opponent remains favourable, with Minnesota United FC taking three of the six previous meetings and winning the most recent encounter 3-1 in 2025.
Houston Dynamo bring a more mixed recent form line of one win, two draws and two defeats, with four goals scored and six conceded. On the road this campaign they have managed five wins in thirteen outings, but have also shipped twenty goals in those trips, suggesting a side capable of contributing to an open game rather than shutting one down.
Taken together, the head-to-head record and the visitors' leaky away defence tilt the balance toward a slight edge for the hosts, even accounting for their poor recent form. A tight, medium-scoring contest in which both teams find the net looks the most coherent reading of the available evidence.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.