Austin FC — Nashville SC: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026

Austin FC welcome Nashville SC in an MLS fixture where the visitors appear to hold a slight edge on the available evidence. Nashville SC arrive with the sharper recent form, taking two wins from their last five while scoring eight and conceding only four, and their away record this season reads five wins and five draws from thirteen trips, with just nine goals conceded on the road. Austin FC, by contrast, have drawn four of their last five matches and managed only a single win in that stretch, and at home they have been equally difficult to separate from opponents, with six draws alongside four wins in thirteen outings.

The head-to-head sample is small but tilts toward the visitors, who have won two of the four meetings. The exception stands out, however: the last encounter ended Nashville SC 0-2 Austin FC in 2024, a reminder that this matchup does not always follow the broader trend.

Taken together, the picture is of a medium-scoring game in which both sides have the tools to find the net, with Nashville SC carrying the stronger underlying numbers but Austin FC capable of frustrating them, as their run of draws suggests. A tight, finely balanced contest looks the most coherent reading.