Sporting Kansas City — Philadelphia Union: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 36.8% |
| 12 | 80.1% | |
| X2 | 83.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.0% / 34.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.3% / 10.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.5% / 28.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.4% / 68.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 5.75 → now 5.25 |
Match preview
Sporting Kansas City face Philadelphia Union in an MLS contest where the available assessment gives the visitors a clear advantage, although with moderate confidence rather than overwhelming certainty. Philadelphia Union are rated as the stronger side in the outcome projection, suggesting that their overall level may give them the better opportunity to control important phases of the match and emerge with the more favorable result.
The scoring outlook points toward an open and productive game. Both teams are considered likely to score, while the overall expectation is for a high-scoring encounter rather than a tightly contained contest. That combination leaves room for Sporting Kansas City to remain competitive even if Philadelphia Union hold the stronger position in the match assessment. The main analytical signal favors an away win, but the projected balance still allows for a close scoreline and meaningful attacking contributions from both sides.
What matters before kick-off
Philadelphia Union's unbeaten streak
Philadelphia Union enters the match on a 10-game unbeaten streak in MLS play, having recorded consecutive 5-0 victories over FC Cincinnati and San Diego FC.
Sporting Kansas City ended winless streak
Sporting Kansas City recently ended a seven-match winless skid with a 3-1 victory over Los Angeles FC, featuring the first club goal from marquee signing André Luiz.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.