Sporting Kansas City — Los Angeles FC: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 42.9% |
| 12 | 76.3% | |
| X2 | 80.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.6% / 37.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.7% / 14.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.0% / 36.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.9% / 58.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.7% / 76.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Sporting Kansas City face Los Angeles FC in an MLS match where the visitors hold a slight edge, although the moderate confidence level suggests a competitive contest rather than a one-sided affair. The available signals point toward an open game, with both teams likely to find the net and the overall scoring pattern expected to be relatively high.
Los Angeles FC appear better placed to claim the stronger result, but Sporting Kansas City remain capable of contributing to the scoreline. The suggested outcomes include a draw as well as victories for Los Angeles FC, which reflects some uncertainty around the final result. A match shaped by chances at both ends is the clearest expectation, with 1-1 and 1-2 among the plausible scorelines.
What matters before kick-off
Sporting Kansas City availability news
Sporting Kansas City will be without Or Blorian, Jake Davis, and Owen Wolff for the match against LAFC.
LAFC recent form and clean sheet record
Los Angeles FC enter the match following a 2-0 home victory over New York Red Bulls, in which goalkeeper Hugo Lloris kept his 12th clean sheet of the 2026 MLS regular season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.