DC United — Atlanta United FC: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.6% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.5% / 35.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.2% / 15.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.6% / 37.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.3% / 59.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.4% / 77.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.8% / 89.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.09.2026 home Columbus Crew 2:1
- 30.08.2026 home Los Angeles FC 0:0
- 23.08.2026 away Charlotte 1:3
- 20.08.2026 home New England Revolution 0:3
- 16.08.2026 away CF Montreal 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.09.2026 home Orlando City 2:3
- 06.09.2026 away Inter Miami 2:2
- 30.08.2026 home Charlotte 0:2
- 24.08.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 2:1
- 20.08.2026 away Minnesota United 2:1
This season: DC United at home vs Atlanta United FC away
| Metric | DC United · at home | Atlanta United FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 4–4–4 | 2–3–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.42 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.92 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 58% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.03.2026 Atlanta United FC 0:0 DC United
- 18.10.2025 Atlanta United FC 1:1 DC United
- 06.07.2025 DC United 0:0 Atlanta United FC
- 20.06.2024 DC United 0:1 Atlanta United FC
- 12.05.2024 Atlanta United FC 2:3 DC United
- 21.09.2023 DC United 1:1 Atlanta United FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
DC United have a slight edge over Atlanta United FC in this MLS matchup, although the moderate confidence indicates a contest with limited separation between the sides. The available assessment points toward a home win or draw rather than a clear-cut result, so DC United’s advantage should be viewed as narrow.
The match is projected to have an open scoring profile, with both teams likely to score. That points to an engaging game in which neither defence is expected to remain untested, while the range of likely scorelines also reflects the balanced nature of the contest. DC United may have enough of an edge to prevail on home ground, but Atlanta United FC remain credible opponents and could take advantage if the hosts leave space in attack. A draw therefore remains a substantial part of the outlook, alongside a narrow home victory.
What matters before kick-off
Atlanta United midfield availability updates
Midfielder Steven Alzate is ruled out for the match against D.C. United due to illness. Midfielder Giuliano Galoppo is listed as questionable while awaiting visa clearance.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.