Columbus Crew — New York Red Bulls: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.6% |
| 12 | 77.6% | |
| X2 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.3% / 32.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.1% / 11.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.1% / 30.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.7% / 52.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.6% / 71.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.1% / 84.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Columbus Crew meet New York Red Bulls in an MLS fixture where the hosts hold a slight edge, although the assessment is moderate rather than decisive. The matchup points toward an open contest, with the overall scoring outlook described as high-scoring. That suggests both sides may have opportunities to influence the game rather than one team controlling the match from start to finish.
Both teams are likely to score, making this a fixture where defensive consistency could be tested throughout. Columbus Crew have the stronger position in the pre-match evaluation, but New York Red Bulls remain capable of contributing to the attacking exchanges. The main signal is the expectation that both teams will find the net, while the range of likely scorelines reflects a competitive game with several possible paths. The hosts may have enough to claim the result, but the margin is expected to be narrow rather than clearly established.
What matters before kick-off
Previous Season Meeting
In their earlier regular-season matchup on May 13, 2026, New York Red Bulls secured a 3-2 victory over Columbus Crew.
Historical Head-to-Head Record
This match represents the 84th regular-season meeting between the clubs, with Columbus Crew holding a 35-34-14 edge over New York Red Bulls.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.