Columbus Crew — New York Red Bulls: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.4% |
| 12 | 78.9% | |
| X2 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.7% / 29.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.1% / 2.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.1% / 9.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.3% / 26.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 52.9% / 47.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 33.5% / 66.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.6% / 81.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.09.2026 away DC United 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Colorado Rapids 3:0
- 30.08.2026 home New England Revolution 1:3
- 23.08.2026 away Nashville SC 2:3
- 20.08.2026 home CF Montreal 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.09.2026 away Los Angeles FC 0:2
- 06.09.2026 away Seattle Sounders 0:0
- 30.08.2026 home Philadelphia Union 1:3
- 23.08.2026 home Chicago Fire 1:1
- 20.08.2026 home Nashville SC 0:1
This season: Columbus Crew at home vs New York Red Bulls away
| Metric | Columbus Crew · at home | New York Red Bulls · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 5–2–5 | 3–3–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.42 | 1.17 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.17 | 2.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.05.2026 New York Red Bulls 3:2 Columbus Crew
- 18.10.2025 Columbus Crew 3:1 New York Red Bulls
- 31.08.2025 New York Red Bulls 0:0 Columbus Crew
- 03.11.2024 New York Red Bulls 2:2 Columbus Crew
- 29.10.2024 Columbus Crew 0:1 New York Red Bulls
- 19.10.2024 New York Red Bulls 2:3 Columbus Crew
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Columbus Crew have a slight edge over New York Red Bulls in this MLS matchup, although the moderate confidence indicates that the gap between the teams is not decisive. The available assessment points toward an open contest rather than a cautious game, with attacking moments expected from both sides. Columbus Crew’s home advantage gives them the stronger position in the overall outlook, but New York Red Bulls remain well placed to create problems and contribute to the scoreline.
The main analytical signal is that both teams are likely to score, which supports a high-scoring match profile. The most prominent projected result is a 2:1 victory for Columbus Crew, while 1:1 and 3:1 are also identified as plausible scorelines. That range reflects a contest in which the hosts may have enough control to prevail, but where New York Red Bulls should not be discounted. The balance of evidence therefore favours Columbus Crew narrowly, with goals at both ends the clearest expectation.
What matters before kick-off
Santiago Rodríguez early impact
Midfielder Santiago Rodríguez, who signed with Columbus Crew as a Designated Player on September 2, 2026, scored his first goal for the club against D.C. United on September 9.
Donkor suspension for New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls midfielder Ronald Donkor was listed as suspended for their previous fixture against LAFC on September 9, 2026.
Columbus Crew upcoming US Open Cup semifinal
Following their MLS fixture against New York Red Bulls, Columbus Crew are scheduled to face Orlando City on September 16, 2026, in the U.S. Open Cup semifinal.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.