Orlando City SC — Toronto FC: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.0% |
| 12 | 76.0% | |
| X2 | 49.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.4% / 30.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.7% / 4.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.9% / 11.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.6% / 30.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.3% / 51.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.2% / 70.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.5% / 84.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.09.2026 away Atlanta Utd 3:2
- 06.09.2026 home San Diego FC 1:0
- 30.08.2026 away Minnesota United 3:3
- 23.08.2026 home Real Salt Lake 2:1
- 20.08.2026 home Chicago Fire 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.09.2026 home Nashville SC 2:1
- 06.09.2026 home Chicago Fire 4:4
- 30.08.2026 home New York City 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away Inter Miami 2:1
- 20.08.2026 home Charlotte 3:3
This season: Orlando City SC at home vs Toronto FC away
| Metric | Orlando City SC · at home | Toronto FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 6–2–4 | 2–3–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.67 | 0.90 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.42 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 60% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 18.10.2025 Toronto FC 4:2 Orlando City SC
- 02.03.2025 Orlando City SC 4:2 Toronto FC
- 04.07.2024 Toronto FC 1:2 Orlando City SC
- 28.04.2024 Orlando City SC 1:2 Toronto FC
- 21.10.2023 Toronto FC 0:2 Orlando City SC
- 05.07.2023 Orlando City SC 4:0 Toronto FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Orlando City SC enter this MLS meeting with a slight home advantage over Toronto FC. The assessment points toward a competitive contest rather than a one-sided match, with the hosts holding the stronger overall position. The home side should therefore be favoured to avoid defeat, although the margin between the teams appears limited.
The main feature of the outlook is an open, high-scoring game in which both Orlando City SC and Toronto FC are likely to find the net. That combination leaves the draw as a realistic possibility, while a narrow home win also fits the profile of the matchup. Toronto FC should have opportunities to remain involved, but Orlando City SC have the clearer edge through home advantage. Overall, the balance favours the hosts, with goals expected at both ends and the result likely to be decided by small details rather than sustained dominance.
What matters before kick-off
Orlando City squad availability
Midfielder Braian Ojeda is ruled out for Orlando City due to a foot injury, while defender Adrián Marín is listed as questionable with a thigh issue ahead of the Toronto FC fixture.
Toronto FC's unbeaten streak
Toronto FC enter the match against Orlando City on a seven-game unbeaten streak dating back to late July, having recently defeated Supporters' Shield leaders Nashville SC 2-1 on Wednesday.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.