Orlando City SC — Toronto FC: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.5% |
| 12 | 76.8% | |
| X2 | 47.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.4% / 30.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.0% / 11.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.3% / 29.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.1% / 50.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.9% / 70.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.0% / 84.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Orlando City SC enter this MLS meeting with a slight home advantage over Toronto FC. The assessment points toward a competitive contest rather than a one-sided match, with the hosts holding the stronger overall position. The home side should therefore be favoured to avoid defeat, although the margin between the teams appears limited.
The main feature of the outlook is an open, high-scoring game in which both Orlando City SC and Toronto FC are likely to find the net. That combination leaves the draw as a realistic possibility, while a narrow home win also fits the profile of the matchup. Toronto FC should have opportunities to remain involved, but Orlando City SC have the clearer edge through home advantage. Overall, the balance favours the hosts, with goals expected at both ends and the result likely to be decided by small details rather than sustained dominance.
What matters before kick-off
Player availability report
According to the official MLS availability report, Orlando City will be without Adrián Marín and Braian Ojeda. Toronto FC listed Djordje Mihailovic, Jonathan Osorio, Nelson Palacio, and Lazar Stefanovic as out.
Toronto FC recent momentum
Toronto FC enters the match carrying a seven-game unbeaten streak, which includes a midweek victory over league-leading Nashville SC.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.