Saint Louis City SC — Minnesota United FC: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.2% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 51.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.8% / 34.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.8% / 14.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.6% / 35.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.5% / 57.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.2% / 75.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.0% / 88.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.09.2026 away Portland Timbers 2:2
- 06.09.2026 away Vancouver Whitecaps 3:1
- 31.08.2026 home FC Dallas 3:3
- 23.08.2026 home Houston Dynamo 2:1
- 20.08.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.09.2026 home FC Dallas 1:2
- 06.09.2026 away Portland Timbers 4:5
- 30.08.2026 home Orlando City 3:3
- 23.08.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 5:1
- 20.08.2026 home Atlanta Utd 1:2
This season: Saint Louis City SC at home vs Minnesota United FC away
| Metric | Saint Louis City SC · at home | Minnesota United FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 6–3–2 | 5–2–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.91 | 1.92 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.27 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 83% |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 83% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 27.07.2025 Saint Louis City SC 1:2 Minnesota United FC
- 18.05.2025 Minnesota United FC 3:0 Saint Louis City SC
- 20.10.2024 Minnesota United FC 4:1 Saint Louis City SC
- 15.09.2024 Saint Louis City SC 1:3 Minnesota United FC
- 24.09.2023 Minnesota United FC 1:2 Saint Louis City SC
- 02.04.2023 Saint Louis City SC 0:1 Minnesota United FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Saint Louis City SC enter this MLS meeting with a slight but credible edge over Minnesota United FC. The assessment points toward the hosts being better placed, while still leaving room for a competitive contest rather than a one-sided match. Minnesota United FC remain closely involved in the projected outcome, and the range of likely scorelines reflects that balance.
The game is expected to have an open attacking character, with both teams likely to score. That suggests a match shaped by chances at both ends rather than a cautious, low-event approach. The most plausible scenarios include a draw as well as narrow wins for either side, but the overall reading leans toward Saint Louis City SC avoiding defeat. The hosts therefore have the stronger position, although Minnesota United FC should have opportunities to make the contest difficult and contribute to the scoring.
What matters before kick-off
Recent results
St. Louis CITY SC extended their MLS unbeaten streak to 14 matches following a 2-2 draw with the Portland Timbers. Meanwhile, Minnesota United FC suffered a second consecutive defeat after losing 2-1 at home to FC Dallas.
Rafael Navarro's quick goal
In their previous match against the Portland Timbers, St. Louis CITY SC forward Rafael Navarro scored just 34 seconds into the game, marking the fastest goal in the club's history.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.