Saint Louis City SC — Minnesota United FC: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.2% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 51.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.1% / 33.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.1% / 13.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.9% / 35.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.9% / 57.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.5% / 75.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.2% / 87.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.10 → now 2.00 |
| W2 | was 3.25 → now 3.50 |
Match preview
Saint Louis City SC enter this MLS meeting with a slight but credible edge over Minnesota United FC. The assessment points toward the hosts being better placed, while still leaving room for a competitive contest rather than a one-sided match. Minnesota United FC remain closely involved in the projected outcome, and the range of likely scorelines reflects that balance.
The game is expected to have an open attacking character, with both teams likely to score. That suggests a match shaped by chances at both ends rather than a cautious, low-event approach. The most plausible scenarios include a draw as well as narrow wins for either side, but the overall reading leans toward Saint Louis City SC avoiding defeat. The hosts therefore have the stronger position, although Minnesota United FC should have opportunities to make the contest difficult and contribute to the scoring.
What matters before kick-off
St. Louis CITY SC recent result
St. Louis CITY SC enter the fixture following a 2-2 away draw against Portland Timbers, extending their unbeaten streak in MLS play to 14 matches.
Rafael Navarro quick goal record
St. Louis CITY SC forward Rafael Navarro scored just 34 seconds into the match against Portland Timbers, marking the fastest goal in the club's history.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.