FC Cincinnati — Charlotte FC: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.5% |
| 12 | 78.6% | |
| X2 | 53.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.6% / 29.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.4% / 2.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.6% / 11.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.6% / 28.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.4% / 68.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.09.2026 away Philadelphia Union 0:5
- 30.08.2026 away Nashville SC 0:4
- 23.08.2026 home Seattle Sounders 1:1
- 20.08.2026 home New York City 2:1
- 16.08.2026 away Orlando City 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.09.2026 away CF Montreal 2:1
- 06.09.2026 home Houston Dynamo 0:0
- 30.08.2026 away Atlanta Utd 2:0
- 23.08.2026 home DC United 3:1
- 20.08.2026 away Toronto FC 3:3
This season: FC Cincinnati at home vs Charlotte FC away
| Metric | FC Cincinnati · at home | Charlotte FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 7–2–2 | 4–2–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.82 | 1.45 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.91 | 1.82 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 64% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 10.05.2026 Charlotte FC 2:2 FC Cincinnati
- 10.08.2025 FC Cincinnati 0:1 Charlotte FC
- 15.03.2025 Charlotte FC 2:0 FC Cincinnati
- 14.07.2024 FC Cincinnati 1:3 Charlotte FC
- 30.03.2024 Charlotte FC 1:1 FC Cincinnati
- 24.09.2023 FC Cincinnati 3:0 Charlotte FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Cincinnati have a slight edge over Charlotte FC in what projects to be a competitive MLS matchup. The assessment points to a moderate level of confidence rather than a decisive gap between the sides, so the home advantage should be viewed as a narrow factor rather than a prediction of a straightforward result. Charlotte FC remain capable of keeping the contest balanced, particularly in a game where neither team is expected to be clearly separated.
The broader scoring outlook is positive, with a high-scoring match considered more likely than a tight, low-event encounter. Both FC Cincinnati and Charlotte FC are likely to score, which could make the game open and changeable across the ninety minutes. That combination supports a close contest with opportunities at both ends, while leaving the draw as a realistic alternative to a home victory. The main analytical signal is therefore both teams to score, alongside a slight preference for FC Cincinnati.
What matters before kick-off
Evander suspended for yellow card accumulation
FC Cincinnati's top goalscorer Evander will be unavailable against Charlotte FC as he serves a suspension for yellow card accumulation.
David Schnegg suspended for Charlotte FC
Charlotte FC defender David Schnegg will miss the match against FC Cincinnati due to a yellow card accumulation suspension.
Charlotte FC heading in off mid-week win
Prior to visiting Cincinnati, Charlotte FC earned a 2-1 away victory against CF Montréal behind an 81st-minute game-winner from Idan Toklomati.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.