FC Dallas — Portland Timbers: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.0% |
| 12 | 77.4% | |
| X2 | 44.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.7% / 30.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.9% / 10.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.7% / 28.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.9% / 49.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.6% / 68.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.2% / 82.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W2 | was 4.00 → now 4.20 |
Match preview
FC Dallas host Portland Timbers in an MLS meeting that leans toward the home side. The assessment gives FC Dallas a slight edge, with the home advantage providing the clearest distinction between the teams. Portland Timbers remain competitive in the overall outlook, so this is not presented as a one-sided contest. The strongest result signal is that FC Dallas should avoid defeat, while a draw remains a credible possibility.
The match is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both FC Dallas and Portland Timbers likely to find the net. That points toward an entertaining game in which defensive control may be difficult for either side to maintain. A level score is among the plausible scenarios, but the wider range of likely outcomes gives FC Dallas more room to secure the stronger result, particularly if they make effective use of their home setting.
What matters before kick-off
FC Dallas recent result
FC Dallas enters the match following a 2-1 away victory over Minnesota United FC on September 9, 2026.
FC Dallas home record vs. Timbers
FC Dallas holds a strong all-time home record against the Portland Timbers, with 11 wins, 1 loss, and 5 draws in home meetings.
Portland Timbers recent form
The Portland Timbers head to Texas having earned points in four of their previous five MLS matches.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.