Sporting Kansas City — Houston Dynamo: Win probabilities, 02.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.3% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 70.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.3% / 39.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.8% / 19.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.2% / 42.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.8% / 65.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.1% / 81.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Sporting Kansas City host Houston Dynamo in an MLS meeting that looks finely balanced but gives the visitors a slight edge. The assessment points toward a moderate level of confidence rather than a decisive separation between the sides, with the draw also a credible possibility. The expected match profile is medium-scoring, suggesting a game with enough attacking intent to produce several meaningful chances without necessarily becoming open from the start.
Both teams are likely to score, which makes a result built around a narrow margin or shared points plausible. The most likely scorelines are 1:1, 1:2 and 0:1, reflecting the combination of competitive balance and Houston Dynamo's marginal advantage. Sporting Kansas City should have opportunities at home, but Houston Dynamo appear better placed to avoid defeat. The overall reading is therefore an away-leaning contest in which the visitors have the stronger result profile, while the scoring pattern keeps a draw firmly in consideration.
What matters before kick-off
Team availability status
Sporting Kansas City will be without Diego Borges, Taylor Calheira, and Justin Reynolds due to injuries. Houston Dynamo FC have Antonio Carlos and Jimmy Maurer ruled out, while Aliyu Ibrahim is listed as questionable.
Houston Dynamo's recent result
Houston Dynamo FC enter the fixture following a 3-0 victory over Austin FC, led by a brace from Mateusz Bogusz and a goal and assist from Guilherme.
Sporting Kansas City's home form
Sporting Kansas City returns to action at home having won two of their last three MLS regular season matches at Sporting Park.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.