Sporting Kansas City — Houston Dynamo: Win probabilities, 02.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.3% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 70.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.3% / 39.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.8% / 19.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.2% / 42.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.8% / 65.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.1% / 81.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 02.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 away Los Angeles FC 0:4
- 23.07.2026 home Minnesota United 2:1
- 17.07.2026 away St. Louis City 2:3
- 24.05.2026 home New York Red Bulls 1:2
- 17.05.2026 away Austin FC 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 home Austin FC 3:0
- 23.07.2026 home DC United 1:1
- 24.05.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 1:1
- 17.05.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 1:0
- 14.05.2026 away Real Salt Lake 0:3
This season: Sporting Kansas City at home vs Houston Dynamo away
| Metric | Sporting Kansas City · at home | Houston Dynamo · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 7 |
| W–D–L | 2–2–4 | 2–1–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.38 | 1.57 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.88 | 2.43 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 88% | 57% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 19.10.2025 Sporting Kansas City 0:0 Houston Dynamo
- 01.06.2025 Houston Dynamo 1:3 Sporting Kansas City
- 12.05.2024 Sporting Kansas City 1:2 Houston Dynamo
- 25.02.2024 Houston Dynamo 1:1 Sporting Kansas City
- 27.11.2023 Houston Dynamo 1:0 Sporting Kansas City
- 24.09.2023 Sporting Kansas City 2:1 Houston Dynamo
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Sporting Kansas City host Houston Dynamo in an MLS meeting that looks finely balanced but gives the visitors a slight edge. The assessment points toward a moderate level of confidence rather than a decisive separation between the sides, with the draw also a credible possibility. The expected match profile is medium-scoring, suggesting a game with enough attacking intent to produce several meaningful chances without necessarily becoming open from the start.
Both teams are likely to score, which makes a result built around a narrow margin or shared points plausible. The most likely scorelines are 1:1, 1:2 and 0:1, reflecting the combination of competitive balance and Houston Dynamo's marginal advantage. Sporting Kansas City should have opportunities at home, but Houston Dynamo appear better placed to avoid defeat. The overall reading is therefore an away-leaning contest in which the visitors have the stronger result profile, while the scoring pattern keeps a draw firmly in consideration.
What matters before kick-off
Team availability status
Sporting Kansas City will be without Diego Borges, Taylor Calheira, and Justin Reynolds due to injuries. Houston Dynamo FC have Antonio Carlos and Jimmy Maurer ruled out, while Aliyu Ibrahim is listed as questionable.
Houston Dynamo's recent result
Houston Dynamo FC enter the fixture following a 3-0 victory over Austin FC, led by a brace from Mateusz Bogusz and a goal and assist from Guilherme.
Sporting Kansas City's home form
Sporting Kansas City returns to action at home having won two of their last three MLS regular season matches at Sporting Park.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.