Sporting Kansas City — Houston Dynamo: Win probabilities, 02.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 54.7% |
| 12 | 75.2% | |
| X2 | 70.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.8% / 35.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.2% / 4.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.5% / 15.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.0% / 37.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.8% / 59.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.8% / 77.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.1% / 88.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Sporting Kansas City host Houston Dynamo in an MLS meeting that looks relatively open on the available indicators. The attacking profile points toward a high-scoring contest, with both teams likely to find the net. That should make the match difficult to control for long periods, particularly if either side scores early and the game becomes more stretched.
Houston Dynamo hold a slight edge in the overall assessment, although the moderate confidence suggests a competitive match rather than a clear mismatch. Sporting Kansas City should still have a realistic path through home advantage and their ability to contribute to the scoring. The more cautious reading is therefore that Houston Dynamo are better placed to avoid defeat, while a draw remains a credible outcome. A result such as a shared scoreline or a narrow Houston victory fits the balance of the preview.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.