Minnesota United FC — San Diego FC: Win probabilities, 02.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.2% |
| 12 | 74.8% | |
| X2 | 53.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.4% / 33.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.0% / 14.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.8% / 35.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.8% / 57.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.4% / 75.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.2% / 87.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 02.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 0:0
- 23.07.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 1:2
- 23.05.2026 home Real Salt Lake 1:1
- 17.05.2026 away New England Revolution 1:2
- 14.05.2026 home Colorado Rapids 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 home FC Dallas 1:0
- 23.07.2026 away Colorado Rapids 0:1
- 24.05.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 2:4
- 17.05.2026 home FC Cincinnati 3:3
- 14.05.2026 home Austin FC 5:0
This season: Minnesota United FC at home vs San Diego FC away
| Metric | Minnesota United FC · at home | San Diego FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 7 |
| W–D–L | 2–4–2 | 1–2–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.63 | 1.86 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 13% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 43% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 12.04.2026 San Diego FC 1:2 Minnesota United FC
- 25.11.2025 San Diego FC 1:0 Minnesota United FC
- 14.09.2025 San Diego FC 1:3 Minnesota United FC
- 15.06.2025 Minnesota United FC 2:4 San Diego FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Minnesota United FC hold a slight but meaningful edge over San Diego FC ahead of this MLS meeting. The assessment points toward a competitive contest rather than a one-sided match, with the home side better placed to control key phases and make use of playing at home. San Diego FC should still have enough attacking threat to remain involved, so Minnesota United FC will need to manage the game carefully rather than rely solely on territorial advantage.
The overall outlook is for an open, high-scoring encounter in which both teams are likely to find the net. That creates a balanced tactical picture: Minnesota United FC may have the stronger platform, but San Diego FC are capable of punishing spaces if the hosts commit too many players forward. A draw remains a realistic possibility, while the home side appears marginally more likely to come away with the stronger result.
What matters before kick-off
Minnesota United's recent result
Minnesota United hosted Western Conference leaders Vancouver Whitecaps at Allianz Field in their previous match, playing out a scoreless 0-0 draw.
San Diego FC squad updates
Mikey Varas' San Diego FC enters the fixture bolstered by key players returning from injury following the regular season break.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.