Minnesota United FC — San Diego FC: Win probabilities, 02.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.2% |
| 12 | 74.8% | |
| X2 | 53.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.4% / 33.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.0% / 14.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.8% / 35.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.8% / 57.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.4% / 75.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.2% / 87.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Minnesota United FC hold a slight but meaningful edge over San Diego FC ahead of this MLS meeting. The assessment points toward a competitive contest rather than a one-sided match, with the home side better placed to control key phases and make use of playing at home. San Diego FC should still have enough attacking threat to remain involved, so Minnesota United FC will need to manage the game carefully rather than rely solely on territorial advantage.
The overall outlook is for an open, high-scoring encounter in which both teams are likely to find the net. That creates a balanced tactical picture: Minnesota United FC may have the stronger platform, but San Diego FC are capable of punishing spaces if the hosts commit too many players forward. A draw remains a realistic possibility, while the home side appears marginally more likely to come away with the stronger result.
What matters before kick-off
Minnesota United's recent result
Minnesota United hosted Western Conference leaders Vancouver Whitecaps at Allianz Field in their previous match, playing out a scoreless 0-0 draw.
San Diego FC squad updates
Mikey Varas' San Diego FC enters the fixture bolstered by key players returning from injury following the regular season break.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.