Chicago Fire — Charlotte FC: Win probabilities, 02.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.2% |
| 12 | 79.5% | |
| X2 | 36.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.8% / 37.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.7% / 12.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.3% / 31.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.8% / 53.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.8% / 72.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.5% / 85.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Chicago Fire enter this MLS fixture with a clear but moderate edge over Charlotte FC. The available assessment points toward the home side as the stronger team, although the level of confidence suggests that this advantage should be treated with some caution rather than as a decisive separation. The home setting supports Chicago Fire’s position in the matchup, while Charlotte FC remain capable of keeping the contest competitive.
The game is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination leaves room for a closely fought match even with Chicago Fire favoured overall. A narrow home win fits the main analytical direction, while a draw also remains a plausible alternative if Charlotte FC make effective use of their scoring opportunities. The most likely scoreline range therefore points to a competitive result with Chicago Fire holding the stronger position, rather than a one-sided encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Chicago Fire Return to Soldier Field
The match against Charlotte FC marks Chicago Fire's first home game at Soldier Field in over two months following a stretch of road matches and a league break.
Player Availability Status
According to the official MLS status report, Chicago Fire enter the match without Christopher Cupps, André Franco, Mbekezeli Mbokazi, and Chris Mueller, while Charlotte FC have Aron John sidelined.
Recent Form Ahead of Match
Charlotte FC enters the match on a four-game unbeaten run in MLS regular season play, while Chicago Fire aims to bounce back after two consecutive losses.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.