Chicago Fire — Charlotte FC: Win probabilities, 02.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.6% |
| 12 | 80.5% | |
| X2 | 37.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.0% / 38.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.0% / 14.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.0% / 33.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.2% / 54.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.5% / 73.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.6% / 86.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Chicago Fire face Charlotte FC in an MLS meeting where the hosts hold a moderate but clear qualitative advantage. Chicago Fire are assessed as the stronger side, although the gap is not presented as decisive. That suggests Charlotte FC should remain competitive, particularly if they can turn the match into an open contest rather than allowing the hosts to control the tempo.
The scoring outlook points towards a high-scoring game, with both teams likely to find the net. The most prominent projected score is a 2-1 victory for Chicago Fire, while 1-1 and 2-0 are also considered plausible outcomes. This range reflects a match in which Chicago Fire have the better overall outlook, but Charlotte FC still possess enough attacking potential to create uncertainty. A balanced start could therefore be important, with the hosts looking to establish control without leaving space for Charlotte FC to exploit in transition.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.