Chicago Fire — Charlotte FC: Win probabilities, 02.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.2% |
| 12 | 79.5% | |
| X2 | 36.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.8% / 37.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.7% / 12.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.3% / 31.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.8% / 53.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.8% / 72.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.5% / 85.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 02.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 away New York City 1:3
- 23.07.2026 away Inter Miami 2:3
- 24.05.2026 home Toronto FC 2:1
- 16.05.2026 away CF Montreal 2:0
- 14.05.2026 away DC United 3:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.07.2026 away New York Red Bulls 2:0
- 23.07.2026 home Atlanta Utd 2:2
- 24.05.2026 home New England Revolution 1:0
- 17.05.2026 home Toronto FC 3:1
- 14.05.2026 home New York City 0:1
This season: Chicago Fire at home vs Charlotte FC away
| Metric | Chicago Fire · at home | Charlotte FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 7 |
| W–D–L | 5–0–3 | 2–1–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.14 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.13 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 57% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 29.06.2025 Chicago Fire 3:2 Charlotte FC
- 18.05.2025 Charlotte FC 1:4 Chicago Fire
- 03.10.2024 Charlotte FC 4:3 Chicago Fire
- 16.05.2024 Chicago Fire 0:1 Charlotte FC
- 08.10.2023 Chicago Fire 0:2 Charlotte FC
- 18.05.2023 Charlotte FC 2:1 Chicago Fire
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Chicago Fire enter this MLS fixture with a clear but moderate edge over Charlotte FC. The available assessment points toward the home side as the stronger team, although the level of confidence suggests that this advantage should be treated with some caution rather than as a decisive separation. The home setting supports Chicago Fire’s position in the matchup, while Charlotte FC remain capable of keeping the contest competitive.
The game is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination leaves room for a closely fought match even with Chicago Fire favoured overall. A narrow home win fits the main analytical direction, while a draw also remains a plausible alternative if Charlotte FC make effective use of their scoring opportunities. The most likely scoreline range therefore points to a competitive result with Chicago Fire holding the stronger position, rather than a one-sided encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Chicago Fire Return to Soldier Field
The match against Charlotte FC marks Chicago Fire's first home game at Soldier Field in over two months following a stretch of road matches and a league break.
Player Availability Status
According to the official MLS status report, Chicago Fire enter the match without Christopher Cupps, André Franco, Mbekezeli Mbokazi, and Chris Mueller, while Charlotte FC have Aron John sidelined.
Recent Form Ahead of Match
Charlotte FC enters the match on a four-game unbeaten run in MLS regular season play, while Chicago Fire aims to bounce back after two consecutive losses.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.