Saint Louis City SC — Real Salt Lake: Win probabilities, 02.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.2% |
| 12 | 75.2% | |
| X2 | 50.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.3% / 32.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.2% / 4.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.2% / 12.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.5% / 33.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.8% / 55.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.1% / 73.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.3% / 86.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Saint Louis City SC have a slight edge over Real Salt Lake in this MLS matchup, with the assessment carrying a high level of confidence. The outlook points toward an open game rather than a cautious contest, as both teams are likely to score. That makes control of transitions and the quality of chances at both ends especially important.
The projected balance still leaves room for several outcomes, with 1:1, 2:1, and 1:2 among the likely scorelines. Saint Louis City SC are marginally better positioned in the overall view, but Real Salt Lake remain capable of producing enough attacking threat to keep the match close. The 1X signal therefore reflects a preference for the hosts avoiding defeat, while recognizing that a draw is a realistic part of the expected range.
What matters before kick-off
Real Salt Lake's Away Winless Streak
Real Salt Lake enters the match against Saint Louis City SC looking to end a six-game winless streak in away matches.
St. Louis City's Winning Streak
St. Louis City enters Saturday's match against Real Salt Lake riding a four-game winning streak in the MLS regular season.
Head-to-Head History
Real Salt Lake holds an all-time record of 3 wins, 1 loss, and 2 draws in six previous head-to-head meetings against St. Louis City SC.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.