Saint Louis City SC — Real Salt Lake: Win probabilities, 02.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.3% |
| 12 | 74.7% | |
| X2 | 54.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.5% / 33.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.9% / 14.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.6% / 35.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.6% / 57.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.3% / 75.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X2 | was 3.00 → now 3.10 |
Match preview
Saint Louis City SC hold a slight edge over Real Salt Lake in what looks like a competitive MLS meeting. The assessment is moderate rather than decisive, suggesting that the home advantage may be meaningful without creating a clear separation between the sides. Real Salt Lake should remain capable of challenging Saint Louis City SC throughout the match, so the contest is unlikely to be one-sided.
The overall outlook points toward an open, high-scoring game, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination should create a match with chances at both ends and limited room for either defence to control the game completely. Saint Louis City SC have the more favourable underlying signal, but a draw remains a credible possibility, particularly if Real Salt Lake can maintain their attacking threat away from home. The safest interpretation is therefore a home-side advantage with protection against an evenly balanced result.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.