Sparta Rotterdam — Willem II Tilburg: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
61.0%
Home win
Sparta Rotterdam
X
20.8%
Draw
W2
18.2%
Away win
Willem II Tilburg
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X81.8%
Both teams to score
Yes64.3%
Totals 2.5
Over68.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.8% |
| 12 | 79.2% | |
| X2 | 39.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.3% / 35.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.5% / 12.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.5% / 31.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.0% / 53.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.0% / 72.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.6% / 85.4% |
Goal distribution model
Sparta Rotterdam × Willem II Tilburg
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.7%
0:1
2.8%
0:2
2.2%
0:3
0.9%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
6.0%
1:1
9.1%
1:2
5.0%
1:3
2.0%
1:4
0.6%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
7.8%
2:1
9.5%
2:2
5.8%
2:3
2.4%
2:4
0.7%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
6.0%
3:1
7.3%
3:2
4.5%
3:3
1.8%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
3.5%
4:1
4.2%
4:2
2.6%
4:3
1.1%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
1.6%
5:1
2.0%
5:2
1.2%
5:3
0.5%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:19.5%
1:19.1%
2:07.8%
3:17.4%
3:06.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Sparta Rotterdam
12th place · 5 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Heerenveen 0:4
- 13.09.2026 away PSV Eindhoven 1:4
- 04.09.2026 home Zwolle 2:2
- 29.08.2026 away Excelsior 1:2
- 22.08.2026 home Utrecht 3:3
Willem II Tilburg
18th place · 2 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home For Sittard 0:1
- 15.09.2026 away Ajax 1:5
- 11.09.2026 away AZ Alkmaar 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Excelsior 0:3
- 30.08.2026 home Heerenveen 2:2
This season: Sparta Rotterdam at home vs Willem II Tilburg away
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam · at home | Willem II Tilburg · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–2 | 0–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.50 | 3.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.41 | 1.34 |
| xG against per match | 2.09 | 2.90 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.25 | 2.33 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Sparta Rotterdam wins5
Draws0
Willem II Tilburg wins1
Goals per match2.83
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 02.03.2025 Sparta Rotterdam 4:0 Willem II Tilburg
- 31.08.2024 Willem II Tilburg 1:2 Sparta Rotterdam
- 13.02.2022 Sparta Rotterdam 1:0 Willem II Tilburg
- 06.11.2021 Willem II Tilburg 0:3 Sparta Rotterdam
- 28.02.2021 Sparta Rotterdam 0:2 Willem II Tilburg
- 13.12.2020 Willem II Tilburg 1:3 Sparta Rotterdam
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 4.33 → now 4.20 |
| W2 | was 5.25 → now 4.75 |
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