ADO Den Haag — PSV Eindhoven: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
8.8%
Home win
ADO Den Haag
X
13.1%
Draw
W2
78.1%
Away win
PSV Eindhoven
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X291.2%
Both teams to score
Yes62.8%
Totals 2.5
Over79.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 21.9% |
| 12 | 86.9% | |
| X2 | 91.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.8% / 37.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.2% / 1.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 92.7% / 7.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 79.2% / 20.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 60.7% / 39.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 41.3% / 58.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 24.9% / 75.1% |
Goal distribution model
ADO Den Haag × PSV Eindhoven
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
1.8%
0:1
4.3%
0:2
7.4%
0:3
7.8%
0:4
6.1%
0:5
3.9%
1
1:0
1.2%
1:1
5.3%
1:2
7.8%
1:3
8.2%
1:4
6.5%
1:5
4.1%
2
2:0
0.8%
2:1
2.6%
2:2
4.1%
2:3
4.3%
2:4
3.4%
2:5
2.2%
3
3:0
0.3%
3:1
0.9%
3:2
1.4%
3:3
1.5%
3:4
1.2%
3:5
0.8%
4
4:0
0.1%
4:1
0.2%
4:2
0.4%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.0%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:38.2%
1:27.8%
0:37.8%
0:27.4%
1:46.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
ADO Den Haag
17th place · 2 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Cambuur 1:1
- 12.09.2026 away Twente 0:2
- 06.09.2026 home For Sittard 2:3
- 30.08.2026 away Feyenoord 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away Go Ahead Eagles 1:3
PSV Eindhoven
3rd place · 16 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Twente 2:3
- 13.09.2026 home Sparta Rotterdam 4:1
- 05.09.2026 away Ajax 3:1
- 30.08.2026 away Utrecht 6:1
- 23.08.2026 home Groningen 5:1
This season: ADO Den Haag at home vs PSV Eindhoven away
| Metric | ADO Den Haag · at home | PSV Eindhoven · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–2 | 3–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 3.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.67 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.17 | 2.35 |
| xG against per match | 1.41 | 1.30 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.33 | 7.75 |
| Corners per match | 4.33 | 6.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
ADO Den Haag wins0
Draws1
PSV Eindhoven wins3
Goals per match3.75
Both teams scored2/4
Over 2.5 goals4/4
- 13.02.2021 ADO Den Haag 2:2 PSV Eindhoven
- 01.11.2020 PSV Eindhoven 4:0 ADO Den Haag
- 15.02.2020 ADO Den Haag 0:3 PSV Eindhoven
- 11.08.2019 PSV Eindhoven 3:1 ADO Den Haag
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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