SC Heerenveen — Excelsior Rotterdam: Win probabilities, 16.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
58.5%
Home win
SC Heerenveen
X
21.5%
Draw
W2
20.0%
Away win
Excelsior Rotterdam
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X80.0%
Both teams to score
Yes65.4%
Totals 2.5
Over68.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.0% |
| 12 | 78.5% | |
| X2 | 41.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.4% / 34.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.6% / 12.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.5% / 31.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.0% / 53.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.0% / 72.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.6% / 85.4% |
Goal distribution model
SC Heerenveen × Excelsior Rotterdam
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.8%
0:1
2.9%
0:2
2.4%
0:3
1.0%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
5.7%
1:1
9.3%
1:2
5.4%
1:3
2.3%
1:4
0.7%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
7.4%
2:1
9.5%
2:2
6.1%
2:3
2.6%
2:4
0.8%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
5.6%
3:1
7.1%
3:2
4.6%
3:3
1.9%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
3.1%
4:1
4.0%
4:2
2.6%
4:3
1.1%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
1.4%
5:1
1.8%
5:2
1.2%
5:3
0.5%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:19.5%
1:19.3%
2:07.4%
3:17.1%
2:26.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.10.2026
SC Heerenveen
10th place · 9 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Sparta Rotterdam 4:0
- 13.09.2026 home Telstar 0:0
- 06.09.2026 home AZ Alkmaar 2:3
- 30.08.2026 away Willem II 2:2
- 22.08.2026 home Zwolle 0:2
Excelsior Rotterdam
8th place · 12 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Ajax 2:2
- 13.09.2026 home Utrecht 1:2
- 08.09.2026 away Nijmegen 2:2
- 05.09.2026 away Willem II 3:0
- 29.08.2026 home Sparta Rotterdam 2:1
This season: SC Heerenveen at home vs Excelsior Rotterdam away
| Metric | SC Heerenveen · at home | Excelsior Rotterdam · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–2 | 2–3–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.75 | 2.20 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.25 | 0.80 |
| xG for per match | 1.07 | 1.77 |
| xG against per match | 1.27 | 1.32 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 5.50 |
| Corners per match | 5.25 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 40% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
SC Heerenveen wins3
Draws1
Excelsior Rotterdam wins2
Goals per match2.17
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 07.03.2026 Excelsior Rotterdam 1:2 SC Heerenveen
- 04.10.2025 SC Heerenveen 2:1 Excelsior Rotterdam
- 19.01.2024 Excelsior Rotterdam 3:0 SC Heerenveen
- 23.09.2023 SC Heerenveen 0:3 Excelsior Rotterdam
- 13.05.2023 SC Heerenveen 0:0 Excelsior Rotterdam
- 05.11.2022 Excelsior Rotterdam 0:1 SC Heerenveen
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.75 → now 1.65 |
| X | was 4.00 → now 4.20 |
| W2 | was 4.00 → now 4.50 |
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