FC Groningen — Ajax Amsterdam: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
22.0%
Home win
FC Groningen
X
21.4%
Draw
W2
56.6%
Away win
Ajax Amsterdam
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1278.6%
Both teams to score
Yes69.6%
Totals 2.5
Over72.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 43.4% |
| 12 | 78.6% | |
| X2 | 78.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.6% / 30.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.8% / 10.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.4% / 27.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.7% / 48.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 32.3% / 67.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.8% / 82.2% |
Goal distribution model
FC Groningen × Ajax Amsterdam
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.3%
0:1
4.5%
0:2
6.3%
0:3
4.9%
0:4
2.8%
0:5
1.3%
1
1:0
2.4%
1:1
8.7%
1:2
9.0%
1:3
7.0%
1:4
4.1%
1:5
1.9%
2
2:0
2.4%
2:1
5.6%
2:2
6.5%
2:3
5.0%
2:4
2.9%
2:5
1.4%
3
3:0
1.1%
3:1
2.7%
3:2
3.1%
3:3
2.4%
3:4
1.4%
3:5
0.6%
4
4:0
0.4%
4:1
0.9%
4:2
1.1%
4:3
0.9%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.3%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:29.0%
1:18.7%
1:37.0%
2:26.5%
0:26.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
FC Groningen
9th place · 11 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 home Zwolle 3:0
- 12.09.2026 away Go Ahead Eagles 1:1
- 06.09.2026 home Twente 2:2
- 28.08.2026 home For Sittard 2:3
- 23.08.2026 away PSV Eindhoven 1:5
Ajax Amsterdam
5th place · 14 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Excelsior 2:2
- 15.09.2026 home Willem II 5:1
- 12.09.2026 away For Sittard 5:1
- 05.09.2026 home PSV Eindhoven 1:3
- 30.08.2026 away Telstar 4:0
This season: FC Groningen at home vs Ajax Amsterdam away
| Metric | FC Groningen · at home | Ajax Amsterdam · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–1 | 3–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.25 | 3.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 0.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.56 | 2.61 |
| xG against per match | 1.47 | 0.81 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 8.67 |
| Corners per match | 6.25 | 8.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
FC Groningen wins1
Draws1
Ajax Amsterdam wins4
Goals per match4.33
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals5/6
- 07.03.2026 FC Groningen 3:1 Ajax Amsterdam
- 02.12.2025 Ajax Amsterdam 2:0 FC Groningen
- 14.05.2025 FC Groningen 2:2 Ajax Amsterdam
- 06.10.2024 Ajax Amsterdam 3:1 FC Groningen
- 14.05.2023 FC Groningen 2:3 Ajax Amsterdam
- 14.08.2022 Ajax Amsterdam 6:1 FC Groningen
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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