SC Cambuur — AZ Alkmaar: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
14.0%
Home win
SC Cambuur
X
18.0%
Draw
W2
68.0%
Away win
AZ Alkmaar
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X286.0%
Both teams to score
Yes61.7%
Totals 2.5
Over70.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 32.0% |
| 12 | 82.0% | |
| X2 | 86.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.7% / 38.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.8% / 3.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.1% / 11.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.1% / 29.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.9% / 51.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.7% / 70.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.9% / 84.1% |
Goal distribution model
SC Cambuur × AZ Alkmaar
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.2%
0:1
6.3%
0:2
8.6%
0:3
7.2%
0:4
4.6%
0:5
2.3%
1
1:0
2.4%
1:1
7.9%
1:2
9.3%
1:3
7.9%
1:4
5.0%
1:5
2.5%
2
2:0
1.6%
2:1
4.0%
2:2
5.1%
2:3
4.3%
2:4
2.7%
2:5
1.4%
3
3:0
0.6%
3:1
1.5%
3:2
1.9%
3:3
1.6%
3:4
1.0%
3:5
0.5%
4
4:0
0.2%
4:1
0.4%
4:2
0.5%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.0%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:29.3%
0:28.6%
1:17.9%
1:37.9%
0:37.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
SC Cambuur
14th place · 5 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Den Haag 1:1
- 12.09.2026 home Nijmegen 3:0
- 06.09.2026 away Telstar 2:2
- 30.08.2026 home Twente 1:4
- 23.08.2026 home Feyenoord 2:5
AZ Alkmaar
1st place · 19 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Telstar 1:0
- 11.09.2026 home Willem II 1:1
- 06.09.2026 away Heerenveen 3:2
- 29.08.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 5:2
- 22.08.2026 away For Sittard 2:0
This season: SC Cambuur at home vs AZ Alkmaar away
| Metric | SC Cambuur · at home | AZ Alkmaar · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–3 | 3–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.25 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.35 | 2.50 |
| xG against per match | 2.04 | 0.94 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 9.33 |
| Corners per match | 3.50 | 9.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
SC Cambuur wins0
Draws1
AZ Alkmaar wins3
Goals per match2.00
Both teams scored2/4
Over 2.5 goals2/4
- 25.02.2023 AZ Alkmaar 2:1 SC Cambuur
- 28.08.2022 SC Cambuur 0:1 AZ Alkmaar
- 22.01.2022 AZ Alkmaar 0:0 SC Cambuur
- 03.10.2021 SC Cambuur 1:3 AZ Alkmaar
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 7.00 → now 6.00 |
| X | was 5.00 → now 4.75 |
| W2 | was 1.36 → now 1.42 |
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