NEC Nijmegen — Fortuna Sittard: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
62.2%
Home win
NEC Nijmegen
X
20.4%
Draw
W2
17.5%
Away win
Fortuna Sittard
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X82.5%
Both teams to score
Yes66.8%
Totals 2.5
Over71.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.5% |
| 12 | 79.6% | |
| X2 | 37.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.8% / 33.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.6% / 3.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.6% / 10.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.8% / 28.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.0% / 49.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.3% / 82.7% |
Goal distribution model
NEC Nijmegen × Fortuna Sittard
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.4%
0:1
2.1%
0:2
2.0%
0:3
0.8%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
4.9%
1:1
8.6%
1:2
4.8%
1:3
2.0%
1:4
0.6%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
7.3%
2:1
9.2%
2:2
5.9%
2:3
2.5%
2:4
0.8%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
5.9%
3:1
7.5%
3:2
4.8%
3:3
2.0%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
3.6%
4:1
4.6%
4:2
2.9%
4:3
1.2%
4:4
0.4%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
1.8%
5:1
2.3%
5:2
1.4%
5:3
0.6%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:19.2%
1:18.6%
3:17.5%
2:07.3%
3:05.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
NEC Nijmegen
11th place · 9 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 1:1
- 12.09.2026 away Cambuur 0:3
- 08.09.2026 home Excelsior 2:2
- 05.09.2026 home Feyenoord 1:3
- 29.08.2026 away Zwolle 3:1
Fortuna Sittard
7th place · 13 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Willem II 1:0
- 12.09.2026 home Ajax 1:5
- 06.09.2026 away Den Haag 3:2
- 28.08.2026 away Groningen 3:2
- 22.08.2026 home AZ Alkmaar 0:2
This season: NEC Nijmegen at home vs Fortuna Sittard away
| Metric | NEC Nijmegen · at home | Fortuna Sittard · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 0–3–2 | 3–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 2.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.60 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.40 | 0.94 |
| xG against per match | 1.92 | 1.35 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| Corners per match | 5.25 | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
NEC Nijmegen wins3
Draws1
Fortuna Sittard wins2
Goals per match4.17
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals5/6
- 28.02.2026 NEC Nijmegen 2:3 Fortuna Sittard
- 31.08.2025 Fortuna Sittard 3:2 NEC Nijmegen
- 19.01.2025 NEC Nijmegen 4:1 Fortuna Sittard
- 31.08.2024 Fortuna Sittard 0:3 NEC Nijmegen
- 02.04.2024 Fortuna Sittard 1:1 NEC Nijmegen
- 15.12.2023 NEC Nijmegen 4:1 Fortuna Sittard
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 5.25 → now 5.00 |
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