Sparta Prague — AFC Bournemouth: Win probabilities, 05.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
16.2%
Home win
Sparta Prague
X
21.9%
Draw
W2
61.9%
Away win
AFC Bournemouth
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X283.8%
Both teams to score
Yes59.1%
Totals 2.5
Over63.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 38.1% |
| 12 | 78.1% | |
| X2 | 83.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.1% / 40.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.6% / 15.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.0% / 37.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.8% / 59.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.8% / 77.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.1% / 88.9% |
Goal distribution model
Sparta Prague × AFC Bournemouth
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.0%
0:1
7.4%
0:2
9.3%
0:3
6.8%
0:4
3.7%
0:5
1.6%
1
1:0
3.0%
1:1
10.1%
1:2
9.9%
1:3
7.2%
1:4
3.9%
1:5
1.7%
2
2:0
2.2%
2:1
4.8%
2:2
5.2%
2:3
3.8%
2:4
2.1%
2:5
0.9%
3
3:0
0.8%
3:1
1.7%
3:2
1.8%
3:3
1.3%
3:4
0.7%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
0.2%
4:1
0.4%
4:2
0.5%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.0%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.1%
1:29.9%
0:29.3%
0:17.4%
1:37.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.11.2026
Sparta Prague
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.10.2026 away Olympiacos Piraeus 0:1
- 15.10.2026 home Lillestroem SK 1:1
- 16.09.2026 away FC Ararat-Armenia 4:1
- 11.08.2026 away Olympique Lyon 0:3
- 04.08.2026 home Olympique Lyon 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Man United 3:0
- 18.10.2026 home Sunderland 2:0
- 10.10.2026 away Chelsea 1:5
- 20.09.2026 home Liverpool 0:1
- 12.09.2026 home Brentford 2:2
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.