AC Milan — Ferencvarosi Budapest: Win probabilities, 05.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
74.6%
Home win
AC Milan
X
15.7%
Draw
W2
9.8%
Away win
Ferencvarosi Budapest
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X90.2%
Both teams to score
Yes50.5%
Totals 2.5
Over64.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 90.2% |
| 12 | 84.3% | |
| X2 | 25.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.2% / 15.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.1% / 57.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.8% / 88.2% |
Goal distribution model
AC Milan × Ferencvarosi Budapest
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.7%
0:1
2.9%
0:2
1.2%
0:3
0.3%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
9.2%
1:1
7.4%
1:2
2.9%
1:3
0.8%
1:4
0.2%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
11.5%
2:1
9.2%
2:2
3.7%
2:3
1.0%
2:4
0.2%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
9.6%
3:1
7.7%
3:2
3.1%
3:3
0.8%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
6.0%
4:1
4.8%
4:2
1.9%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
3.0%
5:1
2.4%
5:2
1.0%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:011.5%
3:09.6%
2:19.2%
1:09.2%
3:17.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Udinese 2:0
- 18.10.2026 home Atalanta 3:2
- 11.10.2026 away Sassuolo 1:1
- 20.09.2026 home Lecce 3:0
- 12.09.2026 away Lazio 2:2
Ferencvarosi Budapest
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.10.2026 home SCU Torreense 4:1
- 15.10.2026 home FC Viktoria Plzen 2:1
- 17.09.2026 away Celtic Glasgow 3:1
- 13.08.2026 away Gornik Zabrze 1:1
- 05.08.2026 home Gornik Zabrze 1:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.