Crystal Palace — TSG Hoffenheim: Win probabilities, 05.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
51.6%
Home win
Crystal Palace
X
24.7%
Draw
W2
23.6%
Away win
TSG Hoffenheim
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X76.4%
Both teams to score
Yes64.2%
Totals 2.5
Over63.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.4% |
| 12 | 75.3% | |
| X2 | 48.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.4% / 14.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.7% / 36.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.5% / 58.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.4% / 76.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
Goal distribution model
Crystal Palace × TSG Hoffenheim
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.2%
0:1
3.4%
0:2
3.2%
0:3
1.4%
0:4
0.5%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
6.0%
1:1
11.2%
1:2
6.3%
1:3
2.7%
1:4
0.9%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
7.3%
2:1
9.6%
2:2
6.2%
2:3
2.7%
2:4
0.9%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
4.8%
3:1
6.3%
3:2
4.1%
3:3
1.8%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
2.4%
4:1
3.1%
4:2
2.0%
4:3
0.9%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.9%
5:1
1.2%
5:2
0.8%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.2%
2:19.6%
2:07.3%
1:26.3%
3:16.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Newcastle 0:2
- 18.10.2026 away Brighton 0:5
- 11.10.2026 home Nott'm Forest 3:1
- 20.09.2026 away Leeds 0:0
- 12.09.2026 home Ipswich 2:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Leverkusen 3:0
- 18.10.2026 away M'gladbach 2:1
- 10.10.2026 home Hamburg 2:3
- 20.09.2026 away Paderborn 1:3
- 12.09.2026 home Stuttgart 2:1
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.