Real Sociedad San Sebastian — Olympique Lyon: Win probabilities, 05.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
49.8%
Home win
Real Sociedad San Sebastian
X
24.4%
Draw
W2
25.9%
Away win
Olympique Lyon
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1275.6%
Both teams to score
Yes64.5%
Totals 2.5
Over63.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.1% |
| 12 | 75.6% | |
| X2 | 50.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.5% / 35.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.0% / 15.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.7% / 36.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.5% / 58.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.4% / 76.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
Goal distribution model
Real Sociedad San Sebastian × Olympique Lyon
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.9%
0:1
4.0%
0:2
3.4%
0:3
1.6%
0:4
0.5%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
6.1%
1:1
10.9%
1:2
6.6%
1:3
3.0%
1:4
1.0%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
7.0%
2:1
9.4%
2:2
6.4%
2:3
2.9%
2:4
1.0%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
4.5%
3:1
6.1%
3:2
4.1%
3:3
1.9%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
2.2%
4:1
2.9%
4:2
2.0%
4:3
0.9%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.8%
5:1
1.1%
5:2
0.8%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.9%
2:19.5%
2:07.0%
1:26.6%
2:26.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Levante 2:1
- 18.10.2026 away Malaga 5:2
- 11.10.2026 home La Coruna 3:2
- 20.09.2026 away Valencia 3:2
- 13.09.2026 home Ath Madrid 0:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.10.2026 away Paris SG 0:2
- 18.10.2026 home Nice 2:1
- 09.10.2026 away Lens 1:2
- 19.09.2026 home Rennes 4:0
- 12.09.2026 away Paris FC 0:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.