SP Tre Fiori — FC Drita: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 36.2% |
| 12 | 79.0% | |
| X2 | 84.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.0% / 49.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.3% / 5.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.9% / 21.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.6% / 44.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.2% / 66.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.0% / 83.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.5% / 92.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
SP Tre Fiori face a difficult test against FC Drita in this UEFA Conference League qualification tie. The available assessment gives FC Drita a clear strength advantage, although confidence in that reading is moderate rather than decisive. This suggests the visitors should enter the match with the more convincing overall outlook, while SP Tre Fiori will need to keep the contest controlled and avoid allowing FC Drita to dictate the rhythm.
The scoring profile points towards a medium-scoring game rather than an exceptionally open encounter. There is no clear separation on whether both teams will score, so that aspect remains finely balanced. A disciplined approach from SP Tre Fiori could keep the match competitive, but FC Drita's stronger rating makes an away-focused result the more prominent scenario. The main analytical question is whether the hosts can limit the visitors' attacking threat for long periods, or whether FC Drita's advantage will gradually become visible as the match develops.
What matters before kick-off
UEFA Conference League third qualifying round tie
The UEFA Conference League qualifying first leg between San Marino's Tre Fiori and Kosovo's Drita takes place on August 6, 2026, at the San Marino Stadium in Serravalle.
Tre Fiori European path
Tre Fiori entered the Conference League qualifiers after being eliminated from Champions League qualifying by Northern Ireland's Larne (0-1 at home and 2-1 in Belfast).
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.