FK Partizan Belgrade — Tobol Kostanay: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.5% |
| 12 | 78.0% | |
| X2 | 33.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.7% / 52.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.5% / 21.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.6% / 46.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.3% / 68.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.6% / 84.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.7% / 93.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FK Partizan Belgrade enter this UEFA Conference League qualification tie as the clearly stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should be interpreted with some caution. Tobol Kostanay face a demanding assignment away from home, while the overall scoring outlook points towards a medium-scoring match rather than an open contest dominated by chances.
The most plausible scenarios favour a controlled home performance, with 2-0 and 1-0 standing out as the main scorelines. A 1-1 draw is also within the range of realistic outcomes, reflecting the uncertainty around how effectively Tobol Kostanay can resist pressure and whether FK Partizan Belgrade turn their stronger position into a decisive advantage. The expectation that both teams score is balanced, so this is not clearly a match in which either side is certain to find the net.
What matters before kick-off
Tobol's travel logistics split team flights
Tobol head coach Miroslav Romaschenko revealed that the squad had to travel to Belgrade split across two separate flights via Frankfurt and Istanbul due to the lack of direct flights from Astana.
Partizan unable to register Baba for Tobol tie
FK Partizan failed to complete the registration of midfielder Iddrisu Baba in time, leaving him unavailable for the UEFA Conference League qualifying tie against Tobol Kostanay.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.