Southampton FC — Queens Park Rangers: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
55.2%
Home win
Southampton FC
X
22.7%
Draw
W2
22.1%
Away win
Queens Park Rangers
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X77.9%
Both teams to score
Yes63.4%
Totals 2.5
Over64.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.9% |
| 12 | 77.3% | |
| X2 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.4% / 36.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.3% / 14.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.6% / 35.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.6% / 57.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.3% / 75.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
Goal distribution model
Southampton FC × Queens Park Rangers
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.4%
0:1
3.7%
0:2
2.9%
0:3
1.2%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
6.6%
1:1
10.2%
1:2
5.9%
1:3
2.5%
1:4
0.8%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
7.7%
2:1
9.7%
2:2
6.1%
2:3
2.6%
2:4
0.8%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
5.3%
3:1
6.7%
3:2
4.2%
3:3
1.8%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
2.7%
4:1
3.4%
4:2
2.2%
4:3
0.9%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
1.1%
5:1
1.4%
5:2
0.9%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.2%
2:19.7%
2:07.7%
3:16.7%
1:06.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Southampton FC
2nd place · 24 pts after 12Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away West Ham 3:2
- 17.10.2026 home Bolton 0:0
- 14.10.2026 away Norwich 1:0
- 11.10.2026 home Portsmouth 1:0
- 19.09.2026 away Wrexham 1:2
Queens Park Rangers
7th place · 20 pts after 12Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Swansea 5:0
- 17.10.2026 away Birmingham 0:3
- 14.10.2026 home Derby 4:1
- 09.10.2026 away West Ham 1:1
- 19.09.2026 home Preston 2:2
This season: Southampton FC at home vs Queens Park Rangers away
| Metric | Southampton FC · at home | Queens Park Rangers · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W–D–L | 5–1–0 | 2–3–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| xG for per match | 1.98 | 1.25 |
| xG against per match | 1.37 | 1.28 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
Southampton FC wins4
Draws0
Queens Park Rangers wins0
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored2/4
Over 2.5 goals3/4
- 24.02.2026 Southampton FC 5:0 Queens Park Rangers
- 05.11.2025 Queens Park Rangers 1:2 Southampton FC
- 23.12.2023 Queens Park Rangers 0:1 Southampton FC
- 26.08.2023 Southampton FC 2:1 Queens Park Rangers
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.60 → now 1.73 |
| W2 | was 4.75 → now 4.00 |
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