Burnley FC — Portsmouth FC: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
48.2%
Home win
Burnley FC
X
26.3%
Draw
W2
25.5%
Away win
Portsmouth FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X74.5%
Both teams to score
Yes55.9%
Totals 2.5
Over52.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.5% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 51.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.9% / 44.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.7% / 22.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.8% / 47.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.6% / 69.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.1% / 84.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.4% / 93.6% |
Goal distribution model
Burnley FC × Portsmouth FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.1%
0:1
6.1%
0:2
4.0%
0:3
1.5%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
9.2%
1:1
12.5%
1:2
6.6%
1:3
2.5%
1:4
0.7%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
8.3%
2:1
9.5%
2:2
5.4%
2:3
2.1%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
4.6%
3:1
5.2%
3:2
3.0%
3:3
1.1%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.9%
4:1
2.2%
4:2
1.2%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.6%
5:1
0.7%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.5%
2:19.5%
1:09.2%
2:08.3%
0:07.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Burnley FC
22nd place · 8 pts after 12Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Lincoln 1:4
- 16.10.2026 home Wolves 1:2
- 13.10.2026 home Charlton 2:2
- 10.10.2026 away Watford 4:0
- 19.09.2026 home Derby 1:1
Portsmouth FC
11th place · 18 pts after 12Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Millwall 2:1
- 20.10.2026 away Wolves 1:1
- 17.10.2026 away Norwich 1:0
- 14.10.2026 home Sheffield United 3:2
- 11.10.2026 away Southampton 0:1
This season: Burnley FC at home vs Portsmouth FC away
| Metric | Burnley FC · at home | Portsmouth FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W–D–L | 0–4–2 | 2–2–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| xG for per match | 0.96 | 1.01 |
| xG against per match | 1.55 | 1.03 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.50 | 2.83 |
| Corners per match | 4.83 | 4.17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
Burnley FC wins1
Draws1
Portsmouth FC wins0
Goals per match1.50
Both teams scored1/2
Over 2.5 goals1/2
- 01.02.2025 Portsmouth FC 0:0 Burnley FC
- 21.09.2024 Burnley FC 2:1 Portsmouth FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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