Bolton Wanderers — Bristol City: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
33.9%
Home win
Bolton Wanderers
X
27.2%
Draw
W2
38.9%
Away win
Bristol City
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1272.8%
Both teams to score
Yes62.3%
Totals 2.5
Over58.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.1% |
| 12 | 72.8% | |
| X2 | 66.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.3% / 37.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.6% / 6.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.0% / 18.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.3% / 41.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.9% / 64.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.7% / 91.3% |
Goal distribution model
Bolton Wanderers × Bristol City
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.4%
0:1
6.1%
0:2
6.0%
0:3
3.1%
0:4
1.2%
0:5
0.4%
1
1:0
5.5%
1:1
12.6%
1:2
8.7%
1:3
4.6%
1:4
1.8%
1:5
0.6%
2
2:0
5.1%
2:1
8.1%
2:2
6.3%
2:3
3.3%
2:4
1.3%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
2.5%
3:1
3.9%
3:2
3.1%
3:3
1.6%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.9%
4:1
1.4%
4:2
1.1%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.6%
1:28.7%
2:18.1%
0:06.4%
2:26.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Bolton Wanderers
18th place · 14 pts after 12Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.10.2026 home Middlesbrough 1:5
- 17.10.2026 away Southampton 0:0
- 13.10.2026 away Wolves 3:1
- 10.10.2026 home Stoke 1:2
- 20.09.2026 away Norwich 4:3
Bristol City
14th place · 15 pts after 12Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Stoke 0:0
- 17.10.2026 home Sheffield United 0:1
- 13.10.2026 home Blackburn 0:1
- 10.10.2026 away Charlton 1:1
- 18.09.2026 home Watford 1:0
This season: Bolton Wanderers at home vs Bristol City away
| Metric | Bolton Wanderers · at home | Bristol City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–4 | 2–3–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.47 | 1.47 |
| xG against per match | 1.85 | 1.45 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| Corners per match | 6.17 | 4.83 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 83% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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