Millwall FC — Derby County: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
57.4%
Home win
Millwall FC
X
24.1%
Draw
W2
18.4%
Away win
Derby County
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X81.6%
Both teams to score
Yes54.2%
Totals 2.5
Over54.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.6% |
| 12 | 75.9% | |
| X2 | 42.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.2% / 45.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.1% / 20.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.8% / 45.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.4% / 67.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.4% / 83.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.2% / 92.8% |
Goal distribution model
Millwall FC × Derby County
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.6%
0:1
4.6%
0:2
2.8%
0:3
0.9%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
9.7%
1:1
11.5%
1:2
5.2%
1:3
1.7%
1:4
0.4%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
10.1%
2:1
9.9%
2:2
4.9%
2:3
1.6%
2:4
0.4%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
6.3%
3:1
6.2%
3:2
3.1%
3:3
1.0%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
3.0%
4:1
2.9%
4:2
1.5%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
1.1%
5:1
1.1%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.5%
2:010.1%
2:19.9%
1:09.7%
0:06.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Millwall FC
13th place · 15 pts after 12Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Portsmouth 1:2
- 17.10.2026 home Lincoln 2:2
- 13.10.2026 home Swansea 0:1
- 10.10.2026 away Preston 1:0
- 19.09.2026 home West Ham 2:2
Derby County
23rd place · 7 pts after 12Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Sheffield United 1:1
- 17.10.2026 home Stoke 0:1
- 14.10.2026 away QPR 1:4
- 10.10.2026 home Wrexham 1:1
- 19.09.2026 away Burnley 1:1
This season: Millwall FC at home vs Derby County away
| Metric | Millwall FC · at home | Derby County · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W–D–L | 2–2–2 | 1–2–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.83 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| xG for per match | 1.90 | 0.90 |
| xG against per match | 1.35 | 1.76 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.83 | 4.17 |
| Corners per match | 6.67 | 4.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Millwall FC wins3
Draws3
Derby County wins0
Goals per match1.83
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals1/6
- 10.03.2026 Millwall FC 1:0 Derby County
- 10.12.2025 Derby County 1:1 Millwall FC
- 22.02.2025 Derby County 0:1 Millwall FC
- 19.10.2024 Millwall FC 1:1 Derby County
- 23.02.2022 Derby County 1:2 Millwall FC
- 06.11.2021 Millwall FC 1:1 Derby County
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.