SL Benfica — Vitoria SC Guimaraes: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 92.7% |
| 12 | 84.4% | |
| X2 | 22.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.4% / 48.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.2% / 12.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.7% / 32.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.1% / 53.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.2% / 72.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.1% / 85.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
SL Benfica
2nd place · 16 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Porto 1:3
- 13.09.2026 home Gil Vicente 3:1
- 09.09.2026 away Moreirense 4:0
- 05.09.2026 away Maritimo 3:0
- 31.08.2026 home Estoril 2:1
Vitoria SC Guimaraes
14th place · 5 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Moreirense 1:1
- 12.09.2026 away Academico Viseu 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Casa Pia 0:0
- 31.08.2026 away Sp Braga 0:1
- 23.08.2026 home Nacional 1:0
This season: SL Benfica at home vs Vitoria SC Guimaraes away
| Metric | SL Benfica · at home | Vitoria SC Guimaraes · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–0 | 0–0–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.69 | 1.15 |
| xG against per match | 0.88 | 1.26 |
| Shots on target per match | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 11.00 | 3.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.03.2026 SL Benfica 3:0 Vitoria SC Guimaraes
- 01.11.2025 Vitoria SC Guimaraes 0:3 SL Benfica
- 19.04.2025 Vitoria SC Guimaraes 0:3 SL Benfica
- 07.12.2024 SL Benfica 1:0 Vitoria SC Guimaraes
- 11.02.2024 Vitoria SC Guimaraes 2:2 SL Benfica
- 02.09.2023 SL Benfica 4:0 Vitoria SC Guimaraes
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SL Benfica come into this Liga Portugal fixture as the clearly stronger side, with the available assessment giving the hosts a high-confidence edge. The overall scoring outlook is also high, suggesting that the match could produce several attacking moments rather than developing into a low-event contest. The main analytical signal points toward a home victory.
Vitoria SC Guimaraes nevertheless remain part of a matchup where the scoring picture is not completely one-sided. The assessment describes both teams scoring as essentially balanced, so while SL Benfica have the stronger overall position, there is room for Vitoria SC Guimaraes to contribute on the scoresheet. The most likely scorelines point toward a controlled home win, with outcomes such as 2–0, 3–0, or 2–1 fitting the broader assessment.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.