Casa Pia Lisbon — Santa Clara Azores: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026

Casa Pia Lisbon host Santa Clara Azores in Liga Portugal on an evening where the form guide points firmly in one direction. The hosts sit 17th of 18 teams on four points from seven matches, and their recent run reads one win against three defeats and a draw. At home the picture is sharper still: three matches, three losses, one goal scored and twelve conceded, with the underlying chance quality suggesting they allow clearly more than they create.

Santa Clara Azores arrive in the opposite state. Fourth in the table on fifteen points, unbeaten across their last five with three wins, and already carrying a strong away ledger of two wins and a draw from three trips, with eight goals scored across the recent run. Their chance creation on the road has been noticeably superior to what they concede, reinforcing the contrast between the two sides.

The head-to-head is tighter than current form implies, with Santa Clara Azores leading three wins to one over six meetings and the last encounter ending goalless. Combined with the sharp gap in league position and home record, the analytical picture leans clearly toward the visitors, though a cagey, modest-scoring contest in the mould of their previous meeting remains plausible.