Rio Ave FC — Nacional da Madeira: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.7% |
| 12 | 72.7% | |
| X2 | 54.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.2% / 44.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.3% / 7.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.5% / 23.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.0% / 49.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.9% / 71.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.9% / 86.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.8% / 94.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
Rio Ave FC
16th place · 4 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Alverca 0:1
- 14.09.2026 home Estrela 3:3
- 06.09.2026 away Santa Clara 0:4
- 28.08.2026 home Sp Lisbon 0:4
- 22.08.2026 away Estoril 2:0
Nacional da Madeira
15th place · 4 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Famalicao 0:4
- 12.09.2026 home Alverca 1:3
- 05.09.2026 away Sp Lisbon 0:2
- 30.08.2026 home Estrela 2:3
- 23.08.2026 away Guimaraes 0:1
This season: Rio Ave FC at home vs Nacional da Madeira away
| Metric | Rio Ave FC · at home | Nacional da Madeira · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–2 | 0–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 1.67 |
| xG for per match | 0.76 | 0.58 |
| xG against per match | 1.84 | 2.53 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 25.01.2026 Nacional da Madeira 4:0 Rio Ave FC
- 17.08.2025 Rio Ave FC 1:1 Nacional da Madeira
- 10.05.2025 Nacional da Madeira 3:3 Rio Ave FC
- 29.12.2024 Rio Ave FC 2:1 Nacional da Madeira
- 19.05.2021 Nacional da Madeira 1:2 Rio Ave FC
- 05.02.2021 Rio Ave FC 0:0 Nacional da Madeira
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Rio Ave FC enter this Liga Portugal meeting with a slight edge over Nacional da Madeira, although the overall assessment carries only moderate confidence. The available signals point toward a competitive match in which the home side has the stronger position, but not by a wide margin. The outcome profile favors Rio Ave FC, while a draw remains a credible alternative.
The match is projected to have a medium-scoring character, suggesting a reasonable balance between attacking opportunities and defensive resistance. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, with the available assessment treating that scenario as essentially even. Overall, the outlook points toward Rio Ave FC having the better chance to avoid defeat, while Nacional da Madeira remain capable of making the contest closely fought.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.