FC Famalicao — FC Alverca SAD: Win probabilities, 12.10.2026
Full time
× Prediction missed
Final result
FC Famalicao1
:
4FC Alverca SAD
Locked signal 1X
Probability 79.9%
Verdict Miss
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
51.9%
Home win
FC Famalicao
X
28.0%
Draw
W2
20.1%
Away win
FC Alverca SAD
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X78.3%
Both teams to score
Yes54.1%
Totals 2.5
Over50.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.3% |
| 12 | 71.9% | |
| X2 | 49.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.1% / 45.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.4% / 8.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.9% / 23.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.5% / 71.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.7% / 94.3% |
Goal distribution model
FC Famalicao × FC Alverca SAD
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
8.6%
0:1
5.1%
0:2
3.6%
0:3
1.2%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
9.4%
1:1
13.4%
1:2
6.0%
1:3
2.1%
1:4
0.5%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
9.3%
2:1
9.6%
2:2
5.0%
2:3
1.7%
2:4
0.4%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
5.2%
3:1
5.3%
3:2
2.8%
3:3
1.0%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
2.1%
4:1
2.2%
4:2
1.1%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.7%
5:1
0.7%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.4%
2:19.6%
1:09.4%
2:09.3%
0:08.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.10.2026
FC Famalicao
13th place · 7 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Nacional 4:0
- 13.09.2026 home Sp Lisbon 1:1
- 05.09.2026 away Estrela 2:2
- 30.08.2026 home Gil Vicente 0:0
- 23.08.2026 away Santa Clara 0:1
FC Alverca SAD
10th place · 8 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Rio Ave 1:0
- 12.09.2026 away Nacional 3:1
- 05.09.2026 home Sp Braga 1:2
- 29.08.2026 home Santa Clara 1:1
- 22.08.2026 away Sp Lisbon 1:3
This season: FC Famalicao at home vs FC Alverca SAD away
| Metric | FC Famalicao · at home | FC Alverca SAD · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–1 | 1–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.39 | 1.08 |
| xG against per match | 1.39 | 2.30 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
FC Famalicao wins1
Draws0
FC Alverca SAD wins1
Goals per match1.00
Both teams scored0/2
Over 2.5 goals0/2
- 16.05.2026 FC Famalicao 1:0 FC Alverca SAD
- 04.01.2026 FC Alverca SAD 1:0 FC Famalicao
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.85 → now 1.91 |
| W2 | was 4.50 → now 4.20 |
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.