Academico de Viseu FC — Estoril Praia: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.7% |
| 12 | 72.7% | |
| X2 | 59.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.5% / 42.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.8% / 7.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.9% / 22.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.0% / 47.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.7% / 69.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.2% / 84.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Academico de Viseu FC
7th place · 11 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Estrela 2:0
- 12.09.2026 home Guimaraes 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Gil Vicente 1:0
- 29.08.2026 home Porto 0:3
- 22.08.2026 away Maritimo 2:2
Estoril Praia
18th place · 2 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Casa Pia 1:2
- 14.09.2026 away Sp Braga 0:1
- 07.09.2026 home Arouca 0:0
- 31.08.2026 away Benfica 1:2
- 22.08.2026 home Rio Ave 0:2
This season: Academico de Viseu FC at home vs Estoril Praia away
| Metric | Academico de Viseu FC · at home | Estoril Praia · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–2 | 0–0–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| xG for per match | 1.11 | 0.64 |
| xG against per match | 1.61 | 1.97 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Academico de Viseu FC host Estoril Praia in Liga Portugal with the table pointing in very different directions. The hosts sit seventh of eighteen on eleven points after seven matches, and their recent form reads three wins, a draw and a defeat across the last five. Estoril Praia, by contrast, are rooted at the bottom of the division with just two points, and their last five games have brought four defeats and a single draw, with two goals scored against seven conceded.
The nuance comes once the venue is factored in. Academico de Viseu FC have struggled at home this season, taking one win from three and conceding five while scoring only twice, and the underlying picture suggests they allow clearly more chances than they create on their own ground. Estoril Praia offer little comfort on the road either, having lost all three away fixtures and shipped five goals in the process, with the same unfavourable chance-quality trend.
Put together, the broader form table favours the hosts, but their shaky home record tempers that edge. The teams look evenly matched on the night, with a moderate lean towards Academico de Viseu FC avoiding defeat in a game that could tilt either way.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.