Maritimo Madeira — FC Porto: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 24.9% |
| 12 | 83.6% | |
| X2 | 91.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 41.3% / 58.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.4% / 21.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.3% / 44.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.9% / 67.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.8% / 83.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.4% / 92.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Maritimo Madeira
11th place · 8 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Gil Vicente 1:1
- 14.09.2026 away Moreirense 1:3
- 05.09.2026 home Benfica 0:3
- 29.08.2026 away Arouca 1:2
- 22.08.2026 home Academico Viseu 2:2
FC Porto
1st place · 21 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Benfica 3:1
- 12.09.2026 away Casa Pia 4:1
- 04.09.2026 home Moreirense 2:1
- 29.08.2026 away Academico Viseu 3:0
- 23.08.2026 home Arouca 2:0
This season: Maritimo Madeira at home vs FC Porto away
| Metric | Maritimo Madeira · at home | FC Porto · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–1 | 3–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.67 | 0.33 |
| xG for per match | 0.90 | 2.02 |
| xG against per match | 1.27 | 0.99 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.02.2023 Maritimo Madeira 0:2 FC Porto
- 06.08.2022 FC Porto 5:1 Maritimo Madeira
- 30.01.2022 FC Porto 2:1 Maritimo Madeira
- 22.08.2021 Maritimo Madeira 1:1 FC Porto
- 22.02.2021 Maritimo Madeira 1:2 FC Porto
- 03.10.2020 FC Porto 2:3 Maritimo Madeira
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Liga Portugal brings a clear mismatch on paper when Maritimo Madeira host FC Porto. The hosts sit 11th of 18 with eight points from seven matches and no wins in their last five games (two draws, three defeats, five scored and eleven conceded). FC Porto arrive top of the table on 21 points, riding a run of five straight victories in which they have scored fourteen and conceded only three. On the road this season the visitors have taken all three matches, with a goal difference of nine to one, which frames the away side as clearly stronger.
The head-to-head record reinforces that picture. In six prior meetings FC Porto have won four, drawn one and lost just once, and the last encounter in 2023 finished Maritimo Madeira 0-2 FC Porto. Four of those six games went over two and a half goals, while both teams found the net in five, so clean sheets have not been the norm even when Porto controlled matters.
With chances at home only roughly level for Maritimo Madeira and Porto creating clearly more than they allow on their travels, the shape of the contest tilts firmly toward the visitors, though a tight, medium-scoring evening remains plausible rather than certain.
What matters before kick-off
FC Porto player availability update
Gabri Veiga, Seko Fofana, and Martim Fernandes have received medical clearance and are available for FC Porto against Marítimo. Additionally, striker Santiago Giménez returned to training following international duty with Mexico.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.