SC Braga — Sporting CP: Win probabilities, 09.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 58.5% |
| 12 | 70.7% | |
| X2 | 70.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.6% / 43.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.3% / 22.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.0% / 49.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.9% / 71.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.9% / 86.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.8% / 94.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.10.2026
SC Braga
5th place · 12 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Santa Clara 0:0
- 14.09.2026 home Estoril 1:0
- 10.09.2026 away Estrela 1:2
- 05.09.2026 away Alverca 2:1
- 31.08.2026 home Guimaraes 1:0
Sporting CP
3rd place · 15 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Arouca 2:2
- 13.09.2026 away Famalicao 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Nacional 2:0
- 28.08.2026 away Rio Ave 4:0
- 22.08.2026 home Alverca 3:1
This season: SC Braga at home vs Sporting CP away
| Metric | SC Braga · at home | Sporting CP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–0 | 1–2–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.67 | 2.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.31 | 2.19 |
| xG against per match | 0.49 | 0.61 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.50 | 6.67 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 07.03.2026 SC Braga 2:2 Sporting CP
- 05.10.2025 Sporting CP 1:1 SC Braga
- 07.04.2025 Sporting CP 1:1 SC Braga
- 10.11.2024 SC Braga 2:4 Sporting CP
- 11.02.2024 Sporting CP 5:0 SC Braga
- 03.09.2023 SC Braga 1:1 Sporting CP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SC Braga host Sporting CP in Liga Portugal with the two sides arriving in contrasting but equally solid form. The hosts sit fifth with twelve points from seven matches and have been firm at home, winning two and drawing one of their three home outings while conceding none at their own ground. Sporting CP come in third with fifteen points, unbeaten across their last five league fixtures, and have travelled well, picking up a win and two draws from three away games with seven goals scored.
The head-to-head record tilts the balance away from the hosts: in their last six meetings, SC Braga have not won once, with four draws and two Sporting CP victories. Their most recent encounter finished 2-2, a result that captures how tight these fixtures tend to be. Both teams are also generating more chances than they concede in their respective home and away settings, which points to a competitive, open contest rather than a one-sided affair.
Overall, the teams look evenly matched with a moderate edge in historical trends favouring the visitors. A cagey, medium-scoring draw or a narrow Sporting CP win fits the broader pattern, though SC Braga's defensive record at home gives them a credible platform to disrupt that trend.
What matters before kick-off
Liga Portugal returns following international break
The matchday eight fixture between SC Braga and Sporting CP on October 9, 2026, marks the resumption of the Primeira Liga following a three-week international break.
SC Braga's defensive home record
In the 2026-27 season, SC Braga hold a perfect home record with five victories and clean sheets in every single home match across all competitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.