FC Arouca — Estrela Amadora: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.7% |
| 12 | 71.7% | |
| X2 | 56.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.7% / 41.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.5% / 20.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.2% / 45.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.8% / 68.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.0% / 84.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
FC Arouca
6th place · 11 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Sp Lisbon 2:2
- 13.09.2026 home Santa Clara 1:2
- 07.09.2026 away Estoril 0:0
- 29.08.2026 home Maritimo 2:1
- 23.08.2026 away Porto 0:2
Estrela Amadora
8th place · 10 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Academico Viseu 0:2
- 14.09.2026 away Rio Ave 3:3
- 10.09.2026 home Sp Braga 2:1
- 05.09.2026 home Famalicao 2:2
- 30.08.2026 away Nacional 3:2
This season: FC Arouca at home vs Estrela Amadora away
| Metric | FC Arouca · at home | Estrela Amadora · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–1 | 1–2–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.51 | 1.75 |
| xG against per match | 0.77 | 1.28 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.67 | 5.67 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 19.04.2026 FC Arouca 1:0 Estrela Amadora
- 07.12.2025 Estrela Amadora 3:1 FC Arouca
- 19.04.2025 FC Arouca 1:0 Estrela Amadora
- 09.12.2024 Estrela Amadora 2:1 FC Arouca
- 05.05.2024 FC Arouca 0:0 Estrela Amadora
- 28.12.2023 Estrela Amadora 1:4 FC Arouca
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
with Estrela Amadora, although the overall assessment suggests a competitive contest rather than a clear mismatch. The hosts have the advantage in the pre-match outlook, but the gap between the sides appears limited enough to keep a draw firmly in consideration. FC Arouca will look to make their home advantage count, while Estrela Amadora have a reasonable opportunity to remain in contention throughout the match.
The scoring outlook points towards a moderately productive game, with a contest featuring around two or three goals a plausible scenario. Both teams scoring remains uncertain, making it difficult to identify either side as clearly more likely to find the net. A level scoreline is one of the credible possibilities, while a narrow home victory also fits the overall assessment. FC Arouca have the stronger case, but Estrela Amadora should not be discounted. The balance of expectations favours the hosts slightly, with a close match likely to depend on which side makes better use of its opportunities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.