SL Benfica — Heart of Midlothian FC: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 96.2% |
| 12 | 93.9% | |
| X2 | 9.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 39.7% / 60.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.8% / 1.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.5% / 10.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 75.0% / 25.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 55.1% / 44.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 35.6% / 64.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 20.3% / 79.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 away Estoril 3:1
- 11.05.2026 home Sp Braga 2:2
- 02.05.2026 away Famalicao 2:2
- 25.04.2026 home Moreirense 4:1
- 19.04.2026 away Sp Lisbon 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.08.2026 away Aberdeen 1:2
- 16.05.2026 away Celtic 1:3
- 13.05.2026 home Falkirk 3:0
- 09.05.2026 away Motherwell 1:1
- 04.05.2026 home Rangers 2:1
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SL Benfica enter this UEFA Europa League qualification tie as the clearly stronger side, with a high level of confidence behind the home outlook. Their main advantage is expected to come from sustained attacking pressure and greater control of the match, particularly with home advantage at their disposal. Heart of Midlothian FC face a demanding task and may need to remain compact while limiting the space available around their penalty area.
The scoring profile points towards an open game with several opportunities for SL Benfica, although the stronger defensive expectation is that Heart of Midlothian FC could struggle to find a way through. A controlled home performance would fit the overall assessment, with scorelines such as 3:0, 2:0 or 4:0 reflecting the balance between attacking production and the likelihood of a clean sheet. The central reading is a decisive home win rather than a closely contested result.
What matters before kick-off
Benfica team news
Fredrik Aursnes missed Benfica's pre-match training due to gastroenteritis, while Franjo Ivanovic was sidelined with a right foot bruise. Joshua Wynder continued his recovery from a sprained left knee.
Benfica's previous round result
In the previous Europa League qualifying round, Benfica defeated Swiss side St. Gallen 6-2 on aggregate, securing a 5-0 win in the second leg at Estadio da Luz with four goals from Vangelis Pavlidis.
Hearts' recent results
Heart of Midlothian dropped into the Europa League qualifiers following a 6-0 aggregate loss to Sturm Graz in Champions League qualifying, and subsequently lost 2-1 to Aberdeen in their Scottish Premiership opener.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.