FC Thun — Vikingur Reykjavik: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.4% |
| 12 | 81.3% | |
| X2 | 32.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.8% / 43.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.9% / 15.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.6% / 35.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.6% / 57.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.3% / 75.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Thun enter this UEFA Europa League qualification tie as the stronger side on the available assessment, although the confidence in that view is moderate. The matchup points toward an open contest with a relatively high-scoring profile, suggesting that both teams may have opportunities to influence the game rather than the tie being decided by a purely cautious approach.
Vikingur Reykjavik still have a credible route into the match, particularly if they can make their attacking moments count and keep the contest balanced during the key phases. Both teams scoring is considered finely balanced, so the hosts’ advantage does not necessarily imply a one-sided game. The most plausible scorelines point to FC Thun winning by a narrow margin, while a draw also remains a realistic alternative. Overall, FC Thun have the clearer edge, but Vikingur Reykjavik should be capable of keeping the result competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Marco Bürki suspended for FC Thun
FC Thun captain Marco Bürki is suspended for the first leg following a red card received in the second leg of the Champions League second qualifying round against Dinamo Zagreb.
FC Thun host Víkingur Reykjavík in UEFA Europa League qualifying
Swiss side FC Thun and Icelandic champions Víkingur Reykjavík contest the first leg of the UEFA Europa League third qualifying round at the Stockhorn Arena.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.