PAOK Thessaloniki — RSC Anderlecht: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.9% |
| 12 | 76.9% | |
| X2 | 40.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.3% / 48.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.5% / 22.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.2% / 84.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
PAOK Thessaloniki have a slight edge over RSC Anderlecht in this UEFA Europa League qualification tie, although the low confidence level points to a closely balanced contest rather than a decisive mismatch. The available assessment gives the hosts the stronger overall position, but the margin between the teams appears limited.
A medium-scoring match is expected, with 1:0, 1:1 and 2:0 identified as the most likely scorelines. The possibility of both teams scoring is evenly balanced, so the game could develop into either a narrow home victory or a draw depending on how the sides manage the key phases. PAOK Thessaloniki may have the initiative, but RSC Anderlecht remain capable of keeping the match competitive.
What matters before kick-off
First leg in Thessaloniki
PAOK host RSC Anderlecht at Toumba Stadium on August 6, 2026, in the first leg of the UEFA Europa League third qualifying round.
Anderlecht's previous European round
RSC Anderlecht reached the third qualifying round by defeating Hammarby 4-2 on aggregate, capped by a 3-1 second-leg win at Lotto Park.
PAOK injury updates
Kiril Despodov continued his recovery program in the gym ahead of the match, while Soualiho Meïté elected to undergo surgical treatment for his injury.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.