SL Benfica — FC St. Gallen 1879: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 95.9% |
| 12 | 92.5% | |
| X2 | 11.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 36.2% / 63.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.9% / 2.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.3% / 13.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.0% / 31.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.6% / 52.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.6% / 71.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.0% / 85.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 7.50 → now 9.00 |
| X2 | was 11.00 → now 15.00 |
Match preview
SL Benfica enter this UEFA Europa League qualifying tie as the clearly stronger side, with a high level of confidence behind the home outcome. FC St. Gallen 1879 face a demanding task away from home, particularly against a Benfica side expected to control the match and create the greater share of attacking opportunities.
The available assessment points toward an open game with several chances, while still suggesting that Benfica could keep a clean sheet. The most likely scorelines indicate a controlled home victory with a meaningful attacking margin, rather than a closely contested encounter. FC St. Gallen 1879 will need to remain compact and efficient in possession if they are to disrupt Benfica's rhythm, but the overall outlook favours SL Benfica to impose their quality across the match.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.