SL Benfica — FC St. Gallen 1879: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 95.4% |
| 12 | 92.8% | |
| X2 | 11.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 38.6% / 61.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.4% / 1.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.9% / 13.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.5% / 29.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.4% / 50.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.2% / 69.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.2% / 83.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
SL Benfica enter this UEFA Europa League qualification tie as the clearly stronger side, with a high level of confidence behind the home-win assessment. The overall profile points toward a match in which the hosts should control possession, territory and the most dangerous attacking situations. Their advantage is reflected not only in the expected result but also in the projected scoring pattern, which favours a productive performance from SL Benfica.
FC St. Gallen 1879 face a demanding task, particularly if they are unable to disrupt the hosts’ rhythm early. The available indicators suggest that SL Benfica can create enough chances to produce a high-scoring game while also limiting the visitors’ opportunities at the other end. A clean sheet for SL Benfica is therefore a credible part of the match outlook, leaving FC St. Gallen 1879 needing an unusually efficient attacking display to change the balance.
What matters before kick-off
First-leg result
In the first leg of the UEFA Europa League second qualifying round on July 23, 2026, FC St. Gallen earned a 2-1 home victory over SL Benfica with goals from Aliou Baldé and Tom Gaal.
FC St. Gallen recent domestic result
Between the two European legs against SL Benfica, FC St. Gallen secured a 2-1 victory over FC Zürich in the Swiss Super League on July 26, 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.