PAOK Thessaloniki — FC Dynamo Kyiv: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.7% |
| 12 | 76.2% | |
| X2 | 45.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.0% / 48.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.8% / 24.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.5% / 48.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.3% / 70.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.2% / 85.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
PAOK Thessaloniki hold a narrow but credible advantage over FC Dynamo Kyiv in this UEFA Europa League qualification tie. The assessment points toward the hosts being better placed, although the gap is not large enough to make this a one-sided contest. The overall expectation is for a medium-scoring match, suggesting a game with attacking opportunities without necessarily developing into an open shootout.
The scoring outlook remains balanced: both teams scoring is described as a coin flip, so either side could find the net, but there is no clear indication that both will do so. The most likely scorelines are 1:0, 1:1 and 2:0, which reflect a match potentially decided by small margins. PAOK Thessaloniki therefore have the stronger position in the forecast, while FC Dynamo Kyiv remain capable of keeping the tie level, particularly if they manage to limit the hosts' chances.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.