Pafos FC — HNK Hajduk Split: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.0% |
| 12 | 76.5% | |
| X2 | 42.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.8% / 50.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.9% / 25.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.2% / 49.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.2% / 71.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.4% / 86.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Pafos FC host HNK Hajduk Split in a UEFA Europa League qualification match with the home side carrying a slight edge. The assessment points toward a competitive contest rather than a one-sided encounter, but Pafos FC appear better placed to control the overall balance, particularly with home advantage in their favour. HNK Hajduk Split remain a significant threat, and the narrow gap between the teams leaves the draw as a realistic outcome.
The match is expected to produce a medium-scoring game, with neither side clearly dominant in the attacking outlook. Both teams scoring is considered finely balanced, so the game could develop in different ways depending on which team establishes control early. The main indication favours Pafos FC avoiding defeat, while HNK Hajduk Split have enough strength to keep the tie close. A narrow home victory or a draw fits the available assessment better than a decisive result for either side.
What matters before kick-off
First-leg qualification result
In the first leg of the UEFA Europa League second qualifying round on July 23, 2026, HNK Hajduk Split secured a 2-0 home victory against Pafos FC with goals from Michele Sego and Dario Melnjak.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.