Pafos FC — HNK Hajduk Split: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.8% |
| 12 | 74.7% | |
| X2 | 48.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.6% / 48.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.6% / 7.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.5% / 25.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.3% / 50.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.4% / 72.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.9% / 87.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.3% / 94.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Pafos FC welcome HNK Hajduk Split in the UEFA Europa League qualification round, with the assessment giving the home side a slight edge. The signal points towards a result that keeps Pafos FC on the stronger side of the outcome, although the margin between the teams is not expected to be decisive. Home advantage is therefore relevant, but HNK Hajduk Split remain well placed to stay competitive throughout the match.
A medium-scoring contest is anticipated, with both teams scoring viewed as an evenly balanced possibility rather than a clear expectation. The most plausible scorelines indicate a closely fought game, ranging from a narrow Pafos FC victory to a draw. That makes the result difficult to separate completely, while the overall reading favours Pafos FC avoiding defeat and taking the more positive position in the tie.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.