FC Midtjylland — Besiktas Istanbul: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.4% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 50.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.1% / 36.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.9% / 16.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.8% / 38.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.5% / 60.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.8% / 78.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Midtjylland have a slight but credible edge over Besiktas Istanbul in this UEFA Europa League qualification meeting. The high-confidence assessment points toward the hosts being the stronger side overall, although the balance is not sufficiently one-sided to rule out a draw. The 1X signal supports a cautious view in which FC Midtjylland are better placed to avoid defeat than Besiktas Istanbul, rather than indicating a clear path to victory.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with neither an exceptionally open contest nor a strictly defensive encounter expected. Both teams scoring remains difficult to separate, so the game could develop in more than one direction depending on which side controls the important phases. A narrow home win and a level result both fit the wider assessment, leaving FC Midtjylland with the advantage while Besiktas Istanbul retain a realistic chance of taking a positive result.
What matters before kick-off
First-leg qualification advantage
Beşiktaş hold a 1-0 aggregate lead over FC Midtjylland in the UEFA Europa League second qualifying round after winning the first leg via an Orkun Kökçü goal.
Beşiktaş squad absences
Beşiktaş are set to be without Wilfred Ndidi due to an ankle injury, the suspended Felix Uduokhai, and Leandro Trossard for the second leg.
FC Midtjylland domestic win
Ahead of the European return leg, FC Midtjylland secured a 3-2 away victory against Soenderjyske Fodbold in the Danish Superliga.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.